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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/1)

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Our last player prop article on Thursday was our most successful of the season, as we went 3-0 and cashed in on a +425 wager as Kyle Tucker homered for the Houston Astros. What can we do for an encore with our first article of July?

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Cardinals (-155) 

Luis Severino benefits from another day off as yesterday’s series opener was rained out. And while conventional wisdom would say that a manager would lean on each of his starting pitchers more in a doubleheader, the New York Yankees bullpen has been so underutilized of late that it may not change manager Aaron Boone’s plans.

Severino is coming off a June where he pitched to a 6.93 ERA and recorded more than 15 outs just once in five starts. Yankees brass will be keeping an eye on Severino’s velocity, as his fastball dipped from 97.0 and 98.1 mph in two May starts to topping out at 95.8 on average through two early-June appearances. That resulted in games with four or fewer strikeouts three times last month.

Boone’s top-ranked bullpen (Yankees relievers have combined for a 2.82 ERA) is rested after being used lightly against the Oakland Athletics (and not at all in Domingo German’s perfect game). And following another off-day yesterday, Boone should utilize his stable of relievers more than usual on a hot and humid day to protect his starting pitcher, as forecasts are calling for a steamy 92 degrees with 63% humidity during the day.

Justin Verlander to not record a win vs. Giants (-185)

The New York Mets continue to be sizeable favorites when Justin Verlander toes the rubber, but that has not been warranted lately, as they are 1-4 in his previous five starts and 3-7 in his ten starts this season. Now the Mets are a season-high ten games under .500 entering the day but remain favorites against the San Francisco Giants, who are five games over .500 against teams with winning records this year. 

Entering yesterday, San Francisco was 28-13 since May 14, a half-game back of the Atlanta Braves for the best record in baseball in that span. A Giants lineup that ranks in the top nine in wRC+, OPS, ISO, and BABIP against right-handed pitching this season should not be this much of an underdog against an overvalued starting pitcher. New York got just three wins from a starting pitcher outside of Max Scherzer in June, and we expect that trend to spill into the first day of July, given the mismatch between these teams.

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases vs. Angels (-110)

Ketel Marte may not have been named the starting second baseman for the National League in this year’s All-Star Game, but there is little doubt he will be named a reserve and rewarded for the season he is having.

Marte’s bWAR (3.2) is on pace to be double what it was last year, and the switch-hitter ended June with a .315/.442/.598 slash line, his best month in every category this season. Those numbers were buoyed by a ridiculous stretch from June 22-27, where he homered in four of five games and raised his OPS by 37 points.

Marte has a .444/.531/.889 slash line against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson. Meanwhile, Anderson pitched to a 5.73 ERA in four June starts, his third straight month with an ERA of 5.19 or worse. Marte should get plenty of healthy cuts in against Anderson, whose 17.9% strikeout rate is on pace to be the second-worst of his career. And Anderson ranks in the 39th percentile in xSLG, so a Diamondbacks lineup whose right-handed hitters entered yesterday batting .290 against southpaws (fifth-best in MLB, per Inside Edge) should give Anderson fits, with Marte being a big beneficiary.

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.