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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/13)

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There are just seven games on today’s MLB slate to choose from. Still, we are confident we have identified three solid player prop bets amid this small slate and are looking to continue the momentum of a profitable 2-1 day yesterday.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
YTD: 17-18-1 (+1.49 units)

Jeffrey Springs to record a win vs. Red Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays are now 12-0 and one win shy of tying the 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers for the longest winning streak to start a season since 1900. With history on the line, we expect their starting pitcher to come through.

The Rays had allowed two runs in their previous four games before yesterday’s 9-7 victory over Boston. Rays southpaw Jeffrey Springs is a big reason their pitching staff led all rotations with a 1.83 ERA and 1.98 FIP entering Wednesday. Springs has not allowed a run in 13 innings, and his 85 pitches per start (second-most on the team) is good assurance he will pitch the necessary five innings to be in line for a win.

Pitching is not the only reason Tampa Bay has started the season on fire, as the Rays’ 29 home runs through 11 games tied a Major League record. That should pose an issue for Red Sox starter Corey Kluber, who has allowed three home runs in 8 1/3 innings of work this year. In addition, Kluber has led the league in walk rate three times in his career, including last year, but has struggled with command in the first two starts (five walks, 5.4 BB/9 rate). He is also not missing many bats (21st percentile in strikeout percentage) or barrels (17th percentile), and his hard-hit percentage is also among the league’s worst (6th percentile).

Bet: Springs to earn a win (+130 at DraftKings) 

Juan Soto to score a run vs. Brewers

Juan Soto has faced the top two favorites to win the NL East (and two of the top favorites to win the pennant) in the last two series, but that did not stop him from raking. Soto has had two or more hits in three of the previous five games while also reaching base four other times via walks in that span. Soto has now reached base safely in 11 of 12 games since Opening Day, and we expect his success against today’s pitcher to result in another big performance, despite it being a lefty vs. lefty matchup.

Soto has a .385/.556/.846 slash line in 13 career at-bats against Eric Lauer. He is one of the only Padres hitters with a higher walk rate (20.8%) than strikeout rate (18.9%) and is on pace for his fifth season in the last seven with a hard-hit percentage of 50% or higher. 

We would be getting a better price backing the Over on Soto’s total bases prop (Over 1.5 is +130), but given his propensity for drawing walks, we are more confident in him crossing the plate, as he has done in more than half of his games (seven of 13) this season.

Bet: Soto to score a run (OFF at DraftKings, -121 at Caesars)

Spencer Turnbull Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. Blue Jays

The Tigers entered Wednesday ranked 29th in starters’ ERA (7.29) and 28th in FIP (6.49), and today’s starter is largely responsible for those poor numbers. Detroit has lost both of Spencer Turnbull’s starts by a combined 18-5. He has induced more ground balls (16) than fly balls (13) this season but has also issued more walks (five) than strikeouts (four). To say that Turnbull does not have “swing and miss stuff” is an understatement, as he generated just one whiff on his 72 pitches in his last start.

Not striking out many batters is a dangerous way to approach the Blue Jays lineup, as Toronto was third in the league with a .339 BABIP entering Wednesday. Four of Toronto’s eight wins this year have been by three or more runs, and the Over going 8-2-1 in Detroit’s last 11 games against teams with a winning record and 6-2 in Toronto’s previous eight games is why we expect another offensive outburst from the Blue Jays.

Bet: Turnbull Over 2.5 earned runs (-150 at DraftKings)

Also, check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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