MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/10)
A clean 3-0 sweep from our last player prop article on Tuesday, in which we profited over three units, has us brimming with confidence. With our three player prop selections today, Aug. 10, we look at RBI and total bases wagers for two elite hitters and expect a rookie pitcher to get lit up in a day start against an elite team.
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hunter Brown Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Orioles (-125)
Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown is fifth on the AL Rookie of the Year leaderboard, leading all AL rookie pitchers in WAR (2.1). Brown does an excellent job of preventing hitters from elevating the ball, as he entered his last start with the fifth-highest ground ball rate (57%) against right-handed hitters among all qualified starting pitchers. And while Brown comes into this appearance having made three consecutive quality starts, we expect this step up in competition (two of the previous three teams he faced are outside of a playoff spot) to result in a worse start.
Either opponents are becoming more familiar with Brown’s arsenal, or he is wearing down late in the season, as he has not eclipsed four strikeouts in three straight starts after recording five-plus K’s in 15 of his first 18 starts. Brown has also allowed two-plus home runs in two of his last four but has limited the damage, as most of those have been solo shots. Brown has also struggled against quality competition this year, allowing 13 earned runs in his previous 19 1/3 innings (spanning four starts) against first-place teams.
The Baltimore Orioles have consistently provided Dean Kremer with run support, as the team has averaged 5.8 runs per game while going 10-2 in his last 12 starts. We expect a similar output today, with most of the damage coming against Brown.
Alec Bohm Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Nationals (+135)
Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin has not been effective against right-handed hitters this year, allowing 22 of his 24 home runs to righties. Right-handed hitters are also hitting .308 off Corbin this year, and there is no silver lining in sight for the lefty, who is among the league’s worst in xBA and xSLG (fourth percentile or worse in both categories).
Corbin now faces a Philadelphia Phillies team that is sixth in wRC+, seventh in OPS and third in BABIP against left-handed pitchers at home since June 1. We expect a big day from slugger Alec Bohm, who is currently fifth on the team in total bases (168). However, his .785 OPS ranks third behind Brandon Marsh and Bryce Harper (min. 300 AB).
Bohm’s numbers against southpaws are the best of any Phillies hitter, as he is slashing .330/.357/.594 and is tied for a team-high 63 total bases against them. He has at least one RBI in six of the previous 11 games, and we are excited about his plus-money odds, given his dominance against lefties.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Royals (-120)
Kansas City Royals righty Alec Marsh has been atrocious on the road this season, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in four starts. Marsh has allowed a .293 OBA and pitched to a 2.12 WHIP against left-handed batters this season. Even more concerning is the lefties’ ability to elevate the ball against him, as his GO/AO rate is 0.54.
Rafael Devers has eight total bases and a .910 OPS over the last seven days, and his batting average is 39 points higher at Fenway Park than on the road this season. Devers has exceeded his total bases prop in five of his previous 10 games and should pad his stats against a struggling pitcher in a game with the highest projected total on the day’s slate (O/U 10.5).
The Over has cashed in 57.5% of Boston’s games against AL opponents this year, and we expect Devers to do his part in ensuring it cashes again.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.