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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/4)

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What better way to ring in the Fourth of July than with barbecues, fireworks, and MLB player props? We are on a 5-1 run in our last six plays and look to continue the momentum with a holiday version of a three-pack of player prop wagers, all involving pitchers.

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Gibson Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Yankees (+105) 

The New York Yankees have averaged five runs per game in their six head-to-head meetings with the Orioles and now face righty Kyle Gibson, who has pitched to a 9.34 ERA in his last three starts. But Gibson is due for positive regression as he has a respectable 3.42 FIP and 23.5% strikeout rate in that span, while the Yankees offense has been one of the league’s worst without Aaron Judge.

Outside of last week’s series against the lowly Oakland Athletics, the Yankees have been held to four or fewer runs in nine of their previous 11 games. And even taking into account the 22 runs New York scored in three games in Oakland, it still ranks 28th in wRC+ (79) and dead-last in BABIP (.246) since Judge last played.

The Under has cashed in each of Gibson’s last five road starts, and we expect him to do his part in keeping the Yankees off the scoreboard today.

Zack Greinke Under 3.5 earned runs allowed vs. Twins (-130)

Zack Greinke has seen the number of hits allowed increase in five consecutive starts, culminating in a season-high 11 hits allowed in his last home start against the Cleveland Guardians. And while Greinke pitched to a season-worst 7.56 ERA and .358 OBA in June, we expect a bounce-back start against a struggling Minnesota Twins offense.

The Twins entered Monday being held to four or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games and had a league-worst 27.2% strikeout rate in that span. While Greinke is not whiffing batters consistently (13th percentile in K%), Minnesota is also bottom-ten in BABIP (.288) throughout their poor ten-game stretch. And we are also backing Greinke because of his great success against current Twins hitters entering the season, holding them to a .210/.240/.246 slash line in 100 combined at-bats, with just two of the 21 hits going for extra bases. Minnesota ranked 24th in OPS in June, so their runs should be at a premium if they are again not producing extra-base hits off Greinke.

Kansas City has won one of Greinke’s last nine starts, but opponents have scored five or fewer runs in six of those, and we expect him to keep his team in the game tonight.

Zach Eflin Over 18.5 outs recorded vs. Phillies (+130)

Zach Eflin has made eight starts at Tropicana Field this season. Guess how many of those he has won? You guessed it, all eight.

In those home starts, Eflin has pitched to a 2.17 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He has averaged more than one strikeout per inning in his 49 â…” home innings, so the fact that he has recorded 18+ outs in ten of his last 11 starts suggests that six strikeouts are his floor, a number he has achieved in four of his previous five home starts.

Eflin should have a bit extra juice facing his former Philadelphia Phillies teammates, who strike out at the fourth-highest rate among all NL teams in road games against right-handed pitchers. And Eflin has been an innings eater, averaging more than six innings per start in each of his last seven and recording 18+ outs in ten of 11 appearances since the calendar turned to May. The Rays have not had a starter go six or more innings in four consecutive games, so look for Eflin to give the bullpen a much-needed break with a lengthy outing in this start.

Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.