Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/17)
Saturday has a loaded 15-game Major League Baseball slate, but there is a chance that not all of those games are played, as rain has been forecasted for many cities on the East Coast. Thus, we are focusing our player prop attention to games in domed stadiums or other areas of the country.
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hunter Brown Under 1.5 earned runs (+110)
Houston Astros right Hunter Brown has had an incredible 15-start stretch. In the 90 innings pitched in that span, Brown has pitched to a 2.40 ERA, a 98:27 K:BB ratio, and a .227 OBA. He has allowed one or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 12 starts, including seven of his last nine against teams currently under .500. That stretch includes a June 19 victory over the Chicago White Sox, where he allowed one run on seven hits over six innings while striking out six. Since that start, the White Sox have traded key bats like Eloy Jimenez, so we expect another dominant outing from an Astros starter against one of the worst teams in MLB history.
Chicago entered yesterday having cashed its team total Under in 10 of its last 12 away games (+7.95 units/55% ROI), and we expect Brown to do his part in ensuring that trend continues again.
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBIs (+125)
Mookie Betts has been on fire since returning from a near two-month IL stint. Betts has recorded multiple hits in each of the four games he has started, including two home runs. He should have success against Cardinals righty Andre Pallante, who allows a .776 OPS to right-handed batters compared to a .571 OPS to lefties.
Andre Pallante does not inspire much confidence on the mound, as the Cardinals have lost his last five starts. He is 0-12 in 12 starts this season against teams with a winning record, and he has had serious control issues of late, as he has issued two-plus walks in four consecutive starts and in six of his last eight. That is an issue when facing a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks second in the majors (and first in the NL) with a 9.7% walk rate. Couple that with Pallante's ERA being 2.14 runs higher at home than on the road, and I expect him to struggle again, with Betts taking advantage of his struggles at the top of the lineup.
Chris Sale Over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)
The Atlanta Braves look like they got a steal with the acquisition of Chris Sale, as the southpaw has looked like his vintage self of late, especially in the strikeout department. Sale has recorded nine-plus strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, and is coming off a start against the San Francisco Giants where he recorded more punchouts (12) than balls put into play (nine, five ground ball outs and four flyouts).
Sale’s 2.61 ERA leads all NL starters, but instead of backing his earned runs prop, we are targeting his strikeouts as we are getting an underinflated number as Sale faces a Los Angeles Angels lineup that has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. Sale’s 4.3 fWAR is the highest of any pitcher since May 1, and he ranks in the 96th percentile or better in strikeout rate, xERA, and hard-hit percentage allowed. Considering the Angels entered Friday cashing their team total Under in 11 of their last 15 home games (+6.45 units/35% ROI), that bodes well for the chances for Sale to turn in another long outing with a high strikeout potential.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.