Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/24)
Much attention around MLB Player Prop bets lately have been centered around Aaron Judge, and rightfully so, given that he is on a clear path towards his second MVP award. When Judge belted his 48th home run of the season on Thursday, he tied Babe Ruth (1921) and Mickey Mantle (1961) for the third-most home runs by a New York Yankees hitter before September. He and teammate Juan Soto also had combined for 84 home runs at the time, which is the second-most by a Yankees duo before September. And all Judge did for an encore yesterday was homer in his fourth consecutive game.
Who do we have our eye on from a player prop perspective today?
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Framber Valdez Under 2.5 earned runs (-160)
Framber Valdez has not had the best success in his career against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing a .321/.358/.481 slash line in 84 combined at-bats to current Orioles hitters. However, these same Orioles were no-hit for more than five innings the last time they faced a southpaw (Mets lefty Sean Manaea), and they rank outside the top 10 in strikeout rate and OPS against left-handed pitching since the start of August.
Valdez is a big reason why the Astros starting rotation has the best collective ERA in August, pitching to a 1.27 ERA in three August starts. He has won a career-high eight consecutive decisions in his last 10 starts. And entering yesterday, he and Hunter Brown had established one of the most feared 1-2 punches in baseball, as each had won 10-plus starts while pitching to a 2.60 ERA or lower, and recording 92-plus strikeouts since June 1.
I expect Valdez to be dominant once again versus the struggling Orioles, and am making this our most confident play of the day.
Tarik Skubal to record a win (-145)
Skubal has won two-thirds of his nine career starts against the Chicago White Sox. And even though he has pitched to a 4.11 ERA in that span, he has had much more success against these current White Sox, holding them to a .205/.224/.259 slash line in 73 combined at-bats.
Skubal has won each of his last three starts against Chicago dating back to last year, including pitching six scoreless innings while holding the White Sox to three hits this year. The lefty is the runaway leader for the AL Cy Young Award at this point, and he should not even be in a position to earn a no-decision against a White Sox team on pace for 39 wins this season.
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs (+200)
Padres rookie Jackson Merrill is now the favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, which is big news considering he was 50-1 to win the award in June, while Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes was -5000 in July at ESPN BET. The latest movement is a result of Merrill entering Friday posting a 1.052 OPS with a .333/.353/.699 slash line over the last 30 days.
Merrill’s odds to record an RBI are inflated in this matchup given that he entered the weekend batting .215 against southpaws and .317 against right-handed pitchers. However, Mets lefty David Peterson ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA and the 13th percentile in xBA, so Merrill has great odds to drive in a run for fourth time in the last nine games.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.