MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (8/15)
We are halfway through August, which means we have just less than months before the Major League Baseball playoffs begin in October. There is just a small seven-game MLB slate on tap for Thursday, but with four of the games having the first pitch scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET or earlier, bettors have plenty of opportunities to make money early and often.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, August 15.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rafael Devers or Anthony Santander to hit a home run (+215)
This is just the second time I am ever using this market in one of my MLB Player Props columns, but the other time was largely successful as I cashed a bet at +210 odds when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered last week.
It makes sense that we would attack this home run market in a series opener featuring the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles, as those two teams rank in the top-seven in the majors in home runs hit this season, and are two of the top three teams in the American League in that category since June 1.
Orioles righty Zach Eflin has done a great job keeping the ball in the ballpark this season, as he is on pace for his third consecutive season with a 1.1 HR/9 rate. However, Rafael Devers has touched him up some in his career, with two of his five extra-base hits in 13 at-bats against Eflin going for home runs, totaling a whopping 1.615 OPS. Conversely, Nick Pivetta has allowed multiple home runs in three consecutive starts, and has been tagged for a .823 OPS by opposing right-handed hitters compared to a .611 OPS against lefties. DraftKings offers bettors to pair Devers with Gunnar Henderson, Jarren Duran, Colton Cowser, and Wilyer Abreu all at longer odds, but the +215 price tag is perfect for us with backing Santander, whose 36 home runs are third-most in the league.
Bailey Ober to record a win (+150)
Bailey Ober has stepped up and pitched much like the ace the Minnesota Twins need him to be after possibly losing Joe Ryan for the rest of the season to a Grade 2 major teres strain. Ober leads all qualified pitchers with a 1.76 ERA over the last two months, and is the first Twins pitcher since 2009 to make nine consecutive quality starts. And you certainly do not want to fall behind in the count against Ober, as Inside Edge pointed out that opposing batters are hitless in their last 52 at-bats with two strikes against the righty.
In his first 13 starts, Ober pitched to a 5.13 ERA, a .242 OBA, .758 OPS, and had a 23.6 strikeout rate with a 1.49 HR/9 rate. However, in the eight starts that followed, his OBA and opponent OPS were down to .158 and .512, respectively, and he struck out 31% of batters while lowering his HR/9 rate to 1.14.
Minnesota’s moneyline odds are somewhat muted given that it is facing the defending World Series champions Texas Rangers. However, the Rangers are 1-3 in their four home series since the All-Star Break, with that lone series win being a sweep of the historically bad Chicago White Sox. Texas has the second-worst record of any AL West team against teams with a winning record this season (28-45), so betting Ober to record the victory is a great way to get better value out of the Twins in this game.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.