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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/2)

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Per ESPN’s David Schoenfield’s article on Monday, offense was up around Major League Baseball through the opening weekend (then we promptly saw our first no-hitter of the season), as teams had averaged 4.62 runs per game last year to 5.05 runs per game this year. That is even more impressive when considering how many games were played in colder climates last weekend, but also makes for great opportunities to cash on some player props.

Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Tuesday.

    Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

    Houston Astros slugger Alex Bregman has five hits in 19 career at-bats against Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios, but four of those have gone for extra bases, which is why Bregman has a career .934 OPS against Berrios. Berrios is also a much worse pitcher on the road than at home in his career, as his .500 road winning percentage is much lower than his .615 career winning percentage at home, and his ERA is 1.13 runs higher (4.71 on the road versus 3.53 at home).

    Berrios also has a career 4.24 ERA in nine starts against Houston, along with a poor 1.393 WHIP. Bregman ranked in the 77th percentile in xwOBA last year, and is always a good bet to make contact, as his strikeout rate (96th percentile) and whiff percentage (98th percentile) are also elite. All it takes is one good swing to cash this over, and we expect Bregman to play a big part in a second consecutive successful offensive day for the Astros against the Blue Jays.

    Juan Soto Under 0.5 hits (+165) 

    New York Yankees lefty Juan Soto entered yesterday’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks off a mammoth opening series against the Houston Astros where he hit .529 and had a .600 OBP. Soto also had a knack for the dramatic, as he drove in the winning runs in the final two games of the series. He has great protection in the lineup with Aaron Judge hitting behind him, but he also does not have the best career success against Zac Gallen, going 3-for-19 with a home run and four strikeouts.

    Gallen’s velocity was down on Opening Day (1.8 mph on average on his fastball, 2.4 mph on his knuckle curve), but we are not as concerned with that being his first start. He went over his projected strikeout total in 70% of his home starts last season, and we expect the Diamondbacks ace to get the best of New York’s hottest hitter.

    Logan Webb Over 2.5 earned runs (-135) 

    San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb was one of the top NL Cy Young candidates entering this season, but he is not likely to pad his resume much with many starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Webb has allowed a .320/.388/.527 slash line in 147 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters. Most of that damage was done by the top of the lineup, as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy have all hit .304 or better against Webb, with Freeman and Muncy having OPS’s of 1.021 and 1.318, respectively, against the righty.

    Webb led the league with 216 innings pitched last season, and he also threw the most pitches of any starting pitcher on Opening Day. While he is usually economical with his pitch count, that also means he is given a longer leash than most, and that means more opportunities for this potent Dodgers lineup to get cracks at him.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.