Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/17)
With college football season in full tilt and the NFL season through two weeks, Major League Baseball may start to get overlooked as the regular season winds down. However, Tuesdays will always be a great day to take advantage of the numerous MLB offerings as it will not coincide with college or professional football down the stretch.
The biggest buzz regarding MLB player props today is New York Mets NL MVP candidate Francisco Lindor, who could miss up to a week while resting his ailing back. His presence in the lineup was definitely missed yesterday even though the Mets eked out a 2-1 victory over the Washington Nationals in 10 innings.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, September 17.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs (-105)
The Orioles are slipping out of the AL East race fast, entering the day three games behind the Yankees, with FanGraphs giving them a 12% chance to win the division. Baltimore can point to injuries as an excuse as they have been without Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle for quite some time, but the fact is its offense is not hitting, as it has topped four runs just once in the last 10 games.
Baltimore ranks 17th in BABIP and 19th in OPS against left-handed pitching since the All-Star Break, and it is collectively hitting .198 against southpaws since September 1. That is not a recipe for success when facing Blake Snell, who has familiarity with the Orioles lineup from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. Snell has limited current Orioles hitters to a combined .200/.329/.387 slash line in 60 at-bats, with just five extra-base hits allowed in that span.
The Orioles have cashed the team total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.75 units/22% ROI), and I expect Snell to do his part in keeping them off the scoreboard again in this series opener, considering he has allowed one or fewer earned runs in nine of his previous 12 starts.
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 RBIs (+195)
There will not be much love for any Rays hitters’ player props today, considering Tampa Bay ranks 24th in wRC+ and 29th in OPS since the start of September. But while Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta has held current Rays hitters to a collective .213 batting average through 61 at-bats, Brandon Lowe has had the most success of any hitter in that span, homering three times in 13 at-bats off Pivetta and producing an eye-popping 1.000 slugging and 1.526 OPS in that sample.
Based on this past history, Lowe has an excellent opportunity to plate himself with another home run tonight, as Pivetta has allowed multiple home runs in five of his previous eight starts. Even if Lowe does not go deep, he is still slashing .273/.304/.636 over the last seven days, and his 14 total bases in that stretch are tied for the team lead.
Cole Ragans to record a win (+110)
Cole Ragans has allowed just two earned runs over 12 September innings (good for a 1.50 ERA) despite facing two of the AL’s most prolific offense (Yankees and Twins) in that stretch. Ragans has made quality starts in four of his last seven outings and has three wins in that span, and should be in a good position to earn a win tonight given that the Royals have won seven of their 10 head-to-head meetings with the Tigers this year.
Ragans has 211 strikeouts this season (fourth in the majors), and he is 33 behind the most for a single season in Royals history (Dennis Leonard had 244 strikeouts in 1977). He is opposed by Detroit’s Casey Mize, who has allowed a troubling .439/.455/.657 slash line in 66 at-bats to current Royals hitters.
The Royals have profited bettors 11.85 units and 12% ROI who had backed their moneyline odds in their last 75 home games entering Monday, and I am backing Ragans to record the win as a way to return better value than with backing Kansas City’s -170 moneyline odds.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.