MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)
The Philadelphia Phillies did not take long to remind the Arizona Diamondbacks who the favorite is in the NLCS. Kyle Schwarber blasted the very first pitch of the bottom of the first inning 408 feet to give the Phillies a 1-0 lead (his four leadoff postseason home runs are now an MLB record), and they never looked back after taking Game 1 5-3.
As hot as the Phillies are swinging the bats this postseason, it creates many opportunities to cash in from a player prop perspective. What wagers catch our eye for Game 2?
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Diamondbacks (+105)
No Phillies hitter has been better off of Merrill Kelly in as large of a sample size as Trea Turner. He has nine hits in 21 at-bats against Kelly, with three of those hits going for extra bases and as many walks (three) as strikeouts (three). Turner has slashed .500/.533/.893 through the postseason to this point. In addition, he is one of three Phillies hitters with a playoff OPS of 1.414 or better this season, and he has plenty of protection from Bryce Harper (batting .409 with a 1.521 OPS in the playoffs).
Right-handed hitters had better numbers against Kelly in the regular season, with a .226 OBA against him compared to a .218 OBA against lefties. In addition, righties were slightly more successful at elevating Kelly, with a 0.99 GO/AO ratio compared to a 1.19 ratio from lefties. Kelly had a 1.0 HR/9 ratio this year, which should help him limit the Phillies’ power, as the team has hit 16 home runs so far this postseason. Thus, we prefer to back a player who can get on base and score in a variety of ways, and no Phillies player is more dangerous when on the basepaths than the speedy Turner.
Turner has scored a run in five consecutive games, and we are getting great odds for him to cross the plate again tonight.
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 stolen bases (+240)
The Diamondbacks never got a chance to get their running game going in Game 1 after stealing the second-most bases this season. Regardless, Arizona never figured to challenge Zack Wheeler, who limits opposing running games with the best of them (Wheeler had just seven steal attempts against him entering yesterday). However, Aaron Nola is less adept at holding runners, as just 33.6% of base stealers (36 of 107) have been unsuccessful against him in his 235 appearances.
Arizona will likely have a game plan to take advantage of its speed, as stealing bases will help it overcome its No. 25 ranking in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season. There is no better base-stealing threat than Carroll, who has 56 stolen bases and six caught stealing in his young career. Carroll has stolen two bases this postseason, and he gets on base enough (he is slashing .381/.519/.714 in the playoffs) to give him plenty of chances to swipe a bag tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- NFL Week 7 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.