Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Saturday (9/28)
Today marks my last MLB player prop bet article of the regular season (don’t worry, I will still be publishing on my regularly scheduled days throughout the playoffs). This day is always a tricky one from a player prop perspective, as bettors have to navigate the teams that have nothing to play for, and who will rest key players as a result. However, that also provides an opportunity to find good value.
What player props do we have our eye on for a loaded slate of games to start the weekend?
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-130)
With my last player prop column of the season, how could I not get involved with the must-watch matchup between Paul Skenes facing the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium?
Skenes has been limited six or fewer innings in 10 consecutive starts, but that does not tell the whole story, as the rookie has still thrown 98-plus pitches in three of four September starts. With a similar pitch count this afternoon, I like Skenes’ chances of going over this projected total, even if New York has more of its regulars in the lineup than it did yesterday, the day after it clinched the AL East.
Skenes has struck out nine batters in three of his previous six starts, and you can bet there will be extra juice with him toeing the rubber on this stage. He has a whole offseason to rest, so I expect him to leave it all out there today and to add one last data point to his resume for NL Rookie of the Year.
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 runs (-125)
Anytime we have an opportunity to fade Chicago Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks, we will take it. Hendricks took his 12th loss of the season on his last start when he allowed nine hits and four earned runs over five innings to the Nationals. He is now a measly 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA in 13 starts at Wrigley Field this season, and has also allowed a troubling .300 OBA in those 13 home appearances.
Reds shortstop Ell De La Cruz had been hot the last 15 days entering Friday, slashing .292/.346/.500 in that span. Entering the weekend, De La Cruz still had 14 runs scored in 22 September games despite having not scored a run in three straight, and he had not gone four or more consecutive games without scoring a run since a six-game stretch from August 13-19. De La Cruz was also batting 53 points higher and slugging 171 points higher against right-handed pitching than southpaws this season, and I expect him to find his way on base a ton against Hendricks, who ranks in the 12th percentile in xERA and the fifth percentile in xBA.
Shane Baz Under 2.5 earned runs (-120)
Tampa Bay Rays righty Shane Baz’s season started late on July 5, but since then, his ERA by month has lowered from 3.66 to 3.38 to now 2.22 through four September starts. Thus, while many pitchers are running on fumes having thrown a ton of innings to this point, Baz should be considered more in in-season form after having just 73 1/3 innings under his belt.
One of his outstanding September starts was on 9/17 against the Boston Red Sox, when he earned the win after allowing just two runs on two hits while striking out six over seven innings. At that time, Baz has set a team mark of five consecutive starts allowing three or fewer hits when pitching at least five innings. Though that streak ended in his last start, he still only allowed four hits over six innings to the Blue Jays, while striking out six for his second consecutive start.
With the Red Sox eliminated from playoff contention, I would not expect them to trot out their most loaded lineup. Conversely, there is no reason to have Baz on a strict pitch count given how few innings he has thrown. While I would not put anyone off backing Baz’s Over on 5.5 strikeouts, the Under on his earned runs is the smarter play, given that the game total Under was 18-10 in Boston’s last 28 games entering the weekend (+8.00 units/28% ROI).
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.