MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/16)
The Major League Baseball slate is limited to six games today as Thursdays remain a popular getaway day. Still, that gives us plenty of data and opportunities to cash in on our favorite MLB player prop bets. While one of our wagers is from the lone afternoon game of the day, bettors in general do not have to rush to get to the betting windows early, as five of the day’s six games are played at night.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, May 16.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Clarke Schmidt Under 2.5 earned runs (-135)
New York Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt has been one of the most consistent and unheralded members of the starting rotation, holding down the fort brilliantly until the team gets ace Gerrit Cole back from injury. Schmidt has pitched to a 2.95 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, a 1.0 bWAR, and 0.6 fWAR. His last start against the Tampa Bay Rays was arguably his best of the season, as the opposition went 1-for-6 on balls in play against his sweeper and a combined 1-for-9 on his knuckle curves and sinkers. And in an earlier start against the Detroit Tigers, Thomas Nestico highlighted how effective of a pitch his knuckle curve can be.
Opponents have finished with three or fewer runs scored in seven of Schmidt’s eight starts this season, and he has done an excellent job of limiting big innings despite allowing a home run in four of his previous five outings. Minnesota has been the league’s highest-scoring team since April 22 (entering yesterday), a stretch of games where they went 17-4 on the heels of scoring 129 runs and slashing .280/.339/.481. The Twins rank sixth in home runs in that span, and it is likely one batter will take Schmidt deep, but his 89.4 pitches per start are the fewest of any of New York’s starters. Thus, with a rested bullpen, manager Aaron Boone will likely remove Schmidt well before he ever hangs a crooked number.
Tyler Glasnow Over 8.5 strikeouts (-110)
Los Angeles Dodgers righty Tyler Glasnow leads the NL with 73 strikeouts, and can likely be counted on for another long outing, as he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts.
The Cincinnati Reds have lost 12 of their last 14 games, and their offense has been a big reason why, scoring three or fewer runs eight times in that span. They struggled with Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt yesterday, whiffing nine times against him (and 10 times total for the game), as Pfaadt pumped the strike zone consistently and improved upon his MLB-best 74.4% first-pitch strike rate.
Glasnow should add to his early Cy Young candidacy by dominating the Reds and improving upon his 11.53 K/9 rate. Glasnow sports a 2.42 xFIP and his Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+ combination of 117/103/107 is among the best for starting pitchers. Glasnow has a 120 Stuff+ rating on his fastball alone, and given that the Reds have barreled one or fewer balls in seven of their last 12 game, we expect Glasnow to get comfortable early. He also has a Dodgers franchise record of 22 straight games with allowing four or fewer runs to protect.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.