Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Friday (Padres vs. Dodgers)
There’s one standalone matchup on tonight’s MLB slate.
It’s the San Diego Padres against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. It’s a winner-take-all. Whoever wins faces the Mets on Sunday in the NLCS. The loser will pack its bags and wait for next year.
I’ve added three player props for this intriguing matchup below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Ks (-140)
Yu Darvish will get the call for Game 5 with the Padres. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has struck out just 20.4% of his last 93 righties. He’s ultimately struggled striking out lefties in the previous 30 days but had a harder time striking out righties throughout the season.
Darvish was on the sidelines for most of the year, but when he came back from injury, he didn’t show much consistency with strikeouts.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Dodgers lineup that has only struck out 16.8% of the time against righties over the last month. This projected lineup has just Teoscar Hernandez as the lone high-strikeout hitter. The rest of the lineup hasn’t struck out more than 20.3% of the time against righties over the last month.
With all hands on deck, Darvish could see a shorter outing tonight. With only one true target for strikeouts, I’ll back his Under.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Over the last 30 days, Fernando Tatis Jr. has smoked a .473 ISO and wOBA of .494 against his last 80 righties. He’s also struck out just 16.2% of the time and has added a 67.2% hard contact rate with a 24.6% barrel percentage against righties in the last month.
He’ll go up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers tonight. Yamamoto has struggled against righties throughout the year and over the last 30 days. This season, he’s allowed a .207 ISO and wOBA of .330 to 192 righties but has recently given up a .419 ISO and wOBA of .513 to his last 32 righties.
Tatis Jr. certainly matches up well with Yamamoto and could be in line for a huge day.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
We just spoke about Yamamoto’s inability to get righties out over the last month. Along with his .419 ISO and wOBA of .513 for his previous 32 righties, he’s also struck out only 18.8% of righties and has allowed a 52% hard contact rate.
Manny Machado is another powerful righty in the Dodgers’ lineup. He’s hit a .176 ISO and wOBA of .309 against his last 78 righties. He’s also smacked 35.2% of fly balls and only 33.3% of ground balls against righties over the previous month.
In addition, Machado has added a 61.1% hard contact rate and a 16.7% barrel percentage against righties in the last 30 days. He’s another Padres hitter who can take advantage of Yamamoto tonight.