MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (5/30)
I’m eying a few juicy matchups for tonight’s MLB player prop picks.
Let’s have a big start to the weekend and earn some profit tonight. I’m feeling confident with these selections.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
The San Francisco Giants are set to battle Cal Quantrill of the Miami Marlins tonight. Quantrill has allowed a .244 ISO and wOBA of .444 to his first 92 righties this season. As a right-handed pitcher, he’s also struck out only 10.9% of righties this season. He’s allowed 33.8% of line drives and has induced just 31.2% of ground balls.
Meanwhile, the Giants don’t have a ton of super-consistent righties. But Heliot Ramos has been absolutely on point against righties over the last month. Ramos has smacked a .258 ISO and wOBA of .443 against his last 73 righties. He’s also nailed 55.8% of hard contact with an 11.5% batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That’s amounted to a .404 BABIP against righties over the last 30 days.
Ramos will likely continue this dominance against Quantrill tonight.
Quantrill has given up 50.6% of hard contact to righties. He’s also allowed an 11.7% barrel rate with just 7.6% of swinging strikes. This is a prime spot for Ramos.
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
The Pittsburgh Pirates will roll with Mitch Keller tonight. Keller is a right-handed veteran pitcher who has allowed a .196 ISO and wOBA of .385 to his last 61 lefties. Those 61 lefties have kept strikeouts below 20% and have also hit 25% of line drives with 27.3% of fly balls against Keller.
Multiple lefties in the Padres’ lineup can smack Keller. That said, I’ll choose Gavin Sheets as the most likely candidate. The Padres power slugger has added a .358 ISO and wOBA of .429 against his last 73 righties. He’s struck out fewer than 22% of the time during that stretch and has hit 35.3% of fly balls with 76.5% of hard contact. He’s also leading the Padres with a 21.6% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Ultimately, Keller has struck out just 15.6% of lefties this season. He’s also given up 30.8% of line drives to 154 lefties this season. The hard contact is also above 51% against lefties this year. Sheets should easily take advantage of the way he’s hitting righties.
Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
The Minnesota Twins will ride with Zebby Matthews tonight. The right-hander has faced only 35 batters this season. However, those 35 batters struck out 40% of the time. He’s limited those 35 batters to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .333 with only 17.6% of fly balls allowed.
Meanwhile, Matthews will take on a Mariners lineup that has struck out more than 25% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Seattle’s projected lineup has eight batters who have struck out at least 21.3% of the time. The lineup also has six batters who have struck out more than 25% of the time over the last month against righties.
Matthews has added more than 11% of swinging strikes and has produced 22.4% of whiffs to start the season. He’s been a bit unlucky with balls in play, but the analytics really like Matthews’ potential, especially against the Mariners tonight.
Let’s take Matthews to record at least six strikeouts. There are so many opportunities for strikeouts in this Seattle lineup.