MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/13)
I’m eying several player props for tonight’s MLB action. Therefore, I decided to write up a few MLB player props you’ll want to consider for tonight’s slate of games.
Let’s get right to it.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Garrett Crochet has raised his strikeout rate over the last month. He’s struck out 35.4% of his last 127 batters. He’s also walked only 4.7% of those batters and has allowed just a .297 wOBA.
Crochet will face a Yankees projected lineup that has struck out more than 24% of the time. The Yankees should have six batters in the lineup who have struck out at least 25% of the time.
Ultimately, Crochet has become one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s earned 26.6% of whiffs and 14.1% of swinging strikes over the last 30 days. He’s also given up only 20% of line drives and has thrown an average of 101 pitches per start in the previous month.
Asking for nine is a lot, but he’s got the matchup to do it.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
The Colorado Rockies will roll with German Marquez tonight. He’s a right-handed thrower who has allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .427 to his last 75 lefties. Those lefties have hit nearly 31% of line drives and have only struck out 17.3% of the time.
While the Braves don’t have a bunch of lefties making consistent contact, they’ve got one. That would be Matt Olson, who has slugged a .292 ISO and wOBA of .410 against his last 76 righties.
Olson has launched 28.6% of line drives over the last month against righties and has hit 71.4% of hard contact, while leading the Braves with a 20.4% barrel rate against righties over the previous 30 days.
Let’s take Olson to add two or more total bases.
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
I’m sure Carlos Correa would love to produce against his former team this weekend.
He’ll face a left-handed pitcher in Colton Gordon tonight. Gordon has allowed a .241 ISO and wOBA of .378 to his first 84 righties faced this season. Those 84 righties have hit 35.4% of line drives and have struck out only 21.4% of the time.
Meanwhile, Correa has smashed a .438 ISO and wOBA of .415 against his last 17 lefties. He’s also hit 91.7% of hard contact and a 25% barrel rate with 41.7% of fly balls against lefties during that stretch.
Interestingly enough, Correa only has a .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) with those stats against lefties. He’s been super unlucky with balls in play against lefties. Eventually, the tide will turn if he continues to get the contact he’s been getting against lefties. Therefore, I’ll side with Correa to add at least two total bases against his former team.
After all, Gordon has allowed a .361 BABIP to righties and has given up a 9.2% barrel rate and has earned just 8.7% of swinging strikes.