MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/20)
With a full slate of games in the MLB tonight, I’ve added three exciting MLB player props to my betting portfolio.
Let’s have a big start to the weekend.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
The New York Mets will give Blade Tidwell the ball for tonight’s game against the Phillies. The New York prospect threw for the Mets in one game earlier this season. However, he was shelled and allowed a .375 ISO and wOBA of .618 to his first 10 right-handed batters. He also struck out just one of those 10 batters and allowed 42.9% of line drives with only 14.3% of ground balls.
Meanwhile, Trea Turner has socked a .216 ISO and wOBA of .404 with only 12.9% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. Turner has hit more than 53% of hard contact with a 14.1% barrel rate over the last month. He’s also smacked 25% of line drives and has limited ground balls to 40.6%.
Turner should have a few quality at-bats against Tidwell as the leadoff hitter.
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Christian Yelich has nailed a .364 ISO and wOBA of .466 against his last 62 righties. He’s struck out 29% of the time, but he’s also hit 51.4% of hard contact with a 13.5% barrel percentage. That’s given him a .387 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the last 30 days against righties.
Yelich will battle Joe Ryan of the Twins. Ryan is a righty who has performed very well against other righties over the last 30 days. However, he’s allowed a .226 ISO and wOBA of .360 to his previous 38 lefties. Those 38 left-handed hitters have struck out below 16% of the time and have walked 10.5% of the time against Ryan. In addition, Ryan has allowed 30.8% of fly balls and has induced just 38.5% of ground balls against lefties over the last month.
This season, Ryan has allowed 50% of hard contact to lefties and has given up an 11% barrel rate with only 9.1% of swinging strikes. Let’s take Yelich to add at least two total bases tonight.
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
The Padres are set to take on Michael Lorenzen of the Kansas City Royals. Lorenzen has allowed a .235 ISO and woBA of .360 to his last 42 lefties. He’s also struck out only 14.3% of lefties while walking 16.7% of lefties over the previous month.
Not only has Lorenzen fallen behind lefties at a high rate, but he’s also allowed more than 48% of fly balls to lefties over the last 30 days. Despite all of this, he’s still allowed just a .222 BABIP against lefties over the previous month.
That should change if he continues to pitch like this against lefties.
Meanwhile, Gavin Sheets has socked a .300 ISO and wOBA of .395 with only 8.6% of strikeouts. Sheets is super patient at the plate and will wait for his pitch with the count in his favor.
Sheets has also delivered a 74.5% hard contact rate with a 14.5% barrel rate. Even with those stats, he’s recorded a .220 BABIP. Lorenzen has been lucky, and Sheets has been unlucky. The tide will turn. Take Sheets to add at least two total bases.