MLB Player Props & Bets: Tuesday (5/20)
As we move into the third week of May, temperatures in several East Coast and Midwest cities will be unusually low because of a cold front expected to bring rain and linger the next couple of days.
We have identified two batters that should not be impacted by these conditions, and ones who are playing in some of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the Majors.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 20th.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Clay Holmes Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110)
The New York Mets snapped a seven-game winning streak in Clay Holmes starts in his last outing, as the righty was roughed up for four earned runs by the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates. Most concerning about the rough outing is that he allowed two home runs for the first time this year (and three home runs total in his last 12 innings). Opposing teams are elevating the ball more against Holmes lately, as he has induced 10+ fly ball outs twice in three starts this month, after doing so once in his first six starts.
If the Boston Red Sox have similar success elevating the ball against Holmes, they will have a high offensive ceiling playing at Fenway Park. Several Red Sox hitters are familiar with Holmes’ arsenal from his days as a Yankee reliever, and Boston should be in for a big day offensively, ranking third in the American League in wOBA and in the top nine overall in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in home games this season.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+235)
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber entered the week tied for second in the Majors with 15 home runs despite hitting just one in the previous six games. However, I expect a huge series for Schwarber and the rest of the Phillies’ offense playing in the most hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field.
Schwarber entered Monday with a career .896 OPS in 17 games at Coors Field (his third-highest at any National League ballpark), with six home runs in 64 at-bats there. Schwarber is 3-for-10 with a home run and five RBI in his career against Antonio Senzatela, and the Rockies righty has allowed three home runs in his last 9.2 innings at home. That makes Schwarber’s +235 odds to hit a home run tonight after he hit his 300th career home run in the ninth inning last night a great value play.
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Athletics slugger Brent Rooker entered the week with a poor .130/.200/.130 slash line over the last seven days, but he spent that time on the road at two of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in Oracle Park and Dodger Stadium. He should benefit from a return to Sutter Health Park, which has proven to be a bandbox early in the season.
Rooker entered the week with a much better OPS at home (.840) than on the road (.674). Rooker also had four more extra-base hits at home despite 27 fewer at-bats, and I expect him to have at least one extra-base hit (or a multi-hit day) against Kyle Hendricks despite going 0-for-3 against him in a small sample size.
While Hendricks ranks in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, his 5.18 ERA is a big product of not missing bats (he ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in strikeout rate and whiff percentages), and is towards the bottom-third of all qualified pitchers in barrels.
Rooker entered Monday hitting safely in eight of his last nine home games, so I am backing him to go over this projected total tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.