MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (6/17)
I have had a strong run with my weekly MLB player props, particularly with hitters. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I am locking in three more hitters I am banking on to exceed expectations. Here are my three top MLB player props for Wednesday, June 17th.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-136 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My first MLB player prop for Wednesday is Willson Contreras of the Boston Red Sox to record at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs against Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Scherzer is most likely going to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown someday. But today's version is virtually unrecognizable from the one we have come to know over the past two decades.
Scherzer has made six starts this season but has only lasted past the fourth inning twice. The 41-year-old has dealt with a forearm injury, but that hardly seems like the sole reason for his struggles.
Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA may be inflated, but his 6.14 expected ERA and 8.78 FIP are not much better. Scherzer's strikeout and barrel allowed rate are both in the third percentile among Major League pitchers.
Contreras has excelled in his first season with the Red Sox and thrives at Fenway Park. The converted catcher is a powerhouse in Boston's lineup, hitting .331 at home and .356 against right-handed pitchers.
Scherzer has had success against Contreras in their previous head-to-head matchups. But only one of those meetings has occurred within the past five years. I expect Contreras to flip the script on Wednesday. Boston should generate plenty of traffic on the bases, and Contreras is in a prime position to capitalize.
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The New York Yankees host the Chicago White Sox and left-hander Anthony Kay on Wednesday. Betting on Paul Goldschmidt against lefties has been an absolute wagon, and I expect more of the same in this matchup. Goldschmidt enters this game on a roll, recording at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in eight straight games.
New York has faced eight left-handed starters over the last 30 days, and Goldschmidt has posted at least three combined hits + runs + RBIs in all eight games. We only need two for him to cash this prop.
If you want to get greedy, Goldschmidt has notched multiple hits in seven of those games. You can get +240 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook for him to record two or more hits, and his total bases prop is plus-money industry-wide.
Goldschmidt is hitting .417 with a .783 slugging rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Those numbers increase to .440 and 1.000 at Yankee Stadium. Kay has had major issues limiting production from right-handed bats all season. Righties are hitting .301 and slugging .503 against the left-hander this season.
Kay incorporates five different pitches to right-handed batters. They include a four-seam fastball, cutter, change-up, sweeper and sinker. Goldschmidt is hitting .413 and slugging .870 against those pitches from left-handers.
The White Sox also have more left-handed relievers in their bullpen than any other team in the league. Even if Kay somehow manages to limit Goldschmidt, the veteran will have other opportunities to reach this threshold.
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
For my final MLB player prop, I am confidently taking Brandon Lowe of the Pittsburgh Pirates to collect at least two total bases against Aaron Civale and the Athletics.
Civale has been awful in his first season on the West Coast. His average exit velocity allowed, hard-hit rate allowed and groundball rate allowed are all in the seventh percentile or worse. It should come as no surprise that Civale has struggled against left-handed hitters, especially in the friendly confines of Sutter Health Park.
Left-handed batters have torched Civale this season, hitting .305 and slugging .542 overall. In Sacramento, those marks jump to .354 and .646. Civale has already surrendered nine extra-base hits to lefties in just 14.1 home innings.
Lowe is one of the most productive hitters against righties in baseball this year. His .574 slugging rate is sixth among 89 hitters with at least 200 plate appearances versus righties. Lowe also profiles well against Civale's pitch mix.
Civale features a cutter, curveball, sinker, four-seam fastball and splitter when facing left-handed hitters. Lowe has a .622 slugging rate against these pitches from right-handers.
I believe Lowe will get the best of his former teammate on Wednesday and clear this number.