MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/13)

The ALDS has two scheduled games today. The afternoon game will be between the Mariners and Astros, while the Yankees will take on the Guardians in the night game.

Here are a couple of same-game parlays to consider for tonight’s MLB playoff action in the divisional series.

• Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

• Leg 1: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 K’s (-126)
• Leg 2: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 K’s (+110)
• Leg 3: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Hit (-190)

Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros today. The left-hander is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Over the last 30 days, Valdez has had a 2.80 xFIP. He’s struck out 25.5% of batters and has walked just 6.1%.

Valdez is primarily a ground ball pitcher, but he’s also got plenty of strikeout potential against Seattle. The Mariners have five batters striking out at least 25.9% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days in the projected lineup. Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Moore, and JP Crawford have all consistently struggled to make contact with the ball over the last 30 days.

As long as Valdez faces the Seattle lineup twice, he should be able to earn six strikeouts.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo will get the start for Seattle. He’s got a 3.54 xFIP and has been just as good as Valdez. The right-hander, like Valdez, is a ground ball pitcher, but lately, he’s only earned 48.3% of grounders. That’s still an above-average number.

Castillo will also face five Houston batters who have struck out at least 20.9% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. With that said, I like Castillo to hang around for at least six innings. If he can do that, he’ll get those six strikeouts.

However, he’s allowed an ISO of .163 to lefties over his last 54 plate appearances. The one lefty that has destroyed righties recently is Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting a .378 ISO and wOBA of .463 against righties in the last month. I’ll add him to get a hit.

Parlay Odds: +481 via FanDuel

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

• Leg 1: Shane Bieber Over 5.5 K’s (+100)
• Leg 2: Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 K’s (+116)
• Leg 3: Anthony Rizzo 1+ Hit (-160)

As a disclaimer, this game could be postponed to tomorrow due to rain in the forecast.

But as of now, the game is on. Maybe we’ll get lucky, and this game will be played.

Shane Bieber will get the start for the Guardians. He’s coming off a tremendous start against the Rays in the Wild Card series. In the last 30 days, Bieber has a 3.05 xFIP and has induced close to 55% of ground balls when the ball is put into play.

Bieber has only earned 21.7% of strikeouts over the last month, but he’s limited walks to 1.6% and line drives to under 20%.

His strikeout numbers will more than likely increase tonight. New York has six batters striking out at least 25% of the time against righties. Six batters have struck out at least 21.2% of the time against righties.

The Yankees aren’t making contact recently. But the one player who has against righties has been Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo has struck out just 15.3% of the time against and has a .212 ISO in the last 30 days against righties.

Bieber has allowed a .164 ISO to his last 56 lefties. Rizzo has the potential to go yard again or at least get a hit.

On the other hand, Nestor Cortes will get the start for the Yankees.  He’s struck out 32.2% of batters over the last 30 days and has rarely allowed extra-base hits.

He’ll take on a Guardians lineup with seven batters striking out at least 19.2% of the time against lefties. With Cortes’ high strikeout rate, there’s a good chance he could get five strikeouts in tonight’s game against Cleveland.

Parlay Odds: +624 via FanDuel

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