MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/17)
Yesterday, we came through with a +839 same-game parlay in the Phillies-Diamondbacks section of our Same-Game Parlay article.
Let’s look to cash in on another SGP between the Phillies and Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the NLCS.
Tuesday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
- Leg 1: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
- Leg 2: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Leg 3: Brandon Marsh Over .5 Hits (-145)
Merrill Kelly will take the hill for the Diamondbacks tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .222 ISO to his last 41 lefties this season. Kelly had a great start in his 2023 postseason debut against the Dodgers. But he might have a harder time against a Phillies lineup that has performed well.
Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh are all left-handed hitters who are dominating against right-handed pitchers.
Schwarber has smacked a .225 ISO and wOBA of .315 over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Harper has hit a .469 ISO and woBA of .528 against his last 43 righties. Those two hit home runs last night and are on track to hit some extra-base hits again tonight.
Lastly, Brandon Marsh has hit a .242 ISO and wOBA of .356 against his last 40 righties. He’s struck out 37.5% of the time against righties, but when he makes contact, it’s loud against righties.
Parlay Odds: +726
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
- Leg 1: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
- Leg 2: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
- Leg 3: Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Ks (-142)
Aaron Nola has been a stud for the Phillies in the postseason. But let’s not forget about this season. He allowed a .193 ISO with 28.9% of fly balls over the year. The right-hander also gave up 43% of hard contact and induced only 41.1% of ground balls.
If anyone has potential against Nola, it’s the two lefties at the top of the order. Corbin Carroll has hit a .348 ISO and wOBA of .495 against his last 54 righties. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte, a switch-hitter, batting lefty, has also hit a .341 ISO and wOBA of .437 against his last 51 righties.
On the other hand, Merrill Kelly will get the start for the Diamondbacks. He’s only struck out 17.1% of lefties over the last month. However, he struck out 24.9% of lefties over the season and earned 26.7% of strikeouts against righties this year.
That rate should continue against a Phillies team that has struck out over 25% of the time against righties using the projected lineup. Only two players have struck out less than 23.3% of the time against righties. Kelly might allow some runs, but if he can get through five innings, I imagine he’ll get five strikeouts.
Parlay Odds: +677
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- NFL Week 7 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
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