MLB Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Sunday (5/11)
We have some interesting MLB matchups today. Let's examine a few and make a couple of same-game parlay (SGP) betting cards with our top MLB picks and predictions.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Sunday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees at Athletics
- Leg 1: Yankees Moneyline (-135)
- Leg 2: Luis Severino 2+ Walks (-185)
- Leg 3: Aaron Judge 1+ RBI (+105)
We have a revenge game as Luis Severino will take on the Yankees. After a tough start to the season, Severino has gotten better, with a 2.93 ERA through his last five starts. The biggest difference for Severino now is that he isn't the strikeout pitcher he once was. He has just an 18.3% strikeout rate, the lowest of his career. He's lost zip on his fastball, which has resulted in almost equally throwing the fastball and sinker.
The Yankees are one of the most disciplined lineups, with them being second in walks drawn per game (4.03). That could be trouble for Severino, who allowed four walks to the team in first (Mariners). That resulted in four earned runs allowed.
Parlay Odds: +450
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leg 1: Braves -1.5 (-135)
- Leg 2: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (-150)
- Leg 3: Pirates Under 2.5 Runs (+120)
After a brutal start to the season, it looks like we're getting Cy Young-winning caliber Chris Sale back. He's been great recently with a 1.96 ERA in his last four starts. He still has one of the best sliders in the league, but now he's getting better with his secondary pitches. He can get the swings and misses with the whiff rate in the 88th percentile and chase rate in the 91st percentile.
The Pirates’ offense may have trouble with Sale's ability to get hitters to swing and miss. Their whiff rate is 19th and they also struggle against lefties, as their batting average is 23rd (.217).
Parlay Odds: +538
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
- Leg 1: Over 11.5 Total Runs (-102)
- Leg 2: Both Teams To Score 4+ Runs (+110)
- Leg 3: Nick Pivetta Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
It looks like we're getting the breakout season from Nick Pivetta. Inconsistency has forced him to bounce from the rotation to the bullpen multiple times throughout his career, but right now, he's only one win away from tying his mark of six from last year, and is halfway to his career high. He's still a heavy fastball pitcher, but we're seeing better movement from the fastball, and hitters are batting .137 on the pitch and a run value of +9.
He's going to Colorado, where he's struggled with an 18.90 ERA in three starts. We could see the Rockies getting to him. However, on the other side, German Marquez, who has lost six straight starts, has a 9.90 ERA, and Padres batters are hitting .336. We should be looking at a lot of runs in this game.
Parlay Odds: +662