MLB Same Game Parlays & Picks: Monday (6/29)
With just three of the 13 games on the Major League Baseball slate between division rivals, there are plenty of unique matchups to scour for today’s MLB same-game parlays (SGPs).
I only include one of those non-divisional games in today’s column, preferring the familiarity between American League West rivals with my second wager. Let’s dive into the two best MLB SGPs for Monday, June 29th.
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Monday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians
- Leg 1: Under 7.5 Runs (-114)
- Leg 2: Parker Messick Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-152)
- Leg 3: Jake Burger 1+ Hits (-174)
Texas averaged five runs per game while winning three straight and six out of nine entering Sunday. But it also got a 3.20 ERA from its starting rotation in that span, and now sends its most consistent pitcher to the mound. Jacob deGrom has made quality starts in three of his last four outings.
Meanwhile, the Rangers are in their worse hitting split facing a southpaw. Texas has struck out at the third-highest rate against left-handed pitching, while ranking 18th in on-base percentage (OBP) and 15th in slugging rate in that split.
Parker Messick should have little issue completing six innings for a third straight start (he has recorded 17 outs in three of the four previous starts).
Jake Burger's slugging rate in road games is nearly 200 points higher than at home. He entered yesterday with a 1.050 OPS over the last seven days.
Burger has homered in four of the last five series that have gone at least three games, and I expect positive regression from his .410 xSLG that is well behind last year's career low of .478.
Parlay Odds: +390
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
- Leg 1: Over 8.0 Runs (-102)
- Leg 2: George Kirby Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
- Leg 3: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-113)
The Mariners have scored three or fewer runs in 13 consecutive games, tying their franchise record set in 2015. They're also just six shy of the MLB record (since at least 1898).
The fact that Seattle went 5-8 in this poor offensive 13-game stretch speaks to the depth and quality of its starting pitching. But today it’s the most inconsistent starter to toe the rubber, as George Kirby has an ERA that’s 1.4 runs worse at home than on the road. He's been hit hard, allowing a .344 opponents’ batting average in four starts this month.
Kirby pitches to contact, with five or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts. With a low ceiling for strikeouts, Kirby is susceptible to a blow-up start, as L.A. ranks eighth in batting average in balls in play (BABIP) with a mark of .298. Five projected Angels starters have a .286 career batting average or better against Kirby, who ranks in the 28th percentile in xBA and the 26th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Randy Arozarena snapped a seven-game RBI and home run drought with a three-run home run on Saturday at Cleveland. Though he has just two home runs this month, he is due for positive regression since he has slashed .281/.388/.439 in 16 June games.
This is a great matchup for Arozarena to inch closer to his sixth career 20-home run season, as Ryan Johnson has allowed a .605 slugging rate to right-handed batters, including three home runs in 38 at-bats.
Parlay Odds: +647
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.