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MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions: Saturday (Diamondbacks vs. Rangers)

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Game 1 of the World Series was electric!

The Rangers stunned the Diamondbacks with a 6-5 come-from-behind win. Corey Seager hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning, while Adolis Garcia smacked a walk-off home run in the 11th.

Texas now leads the World Series, 1-0, with another home game on the horizon tonight.

With Jordan Montgomery on the hill for the Rangers, Texas looks to have the advantage in Game 2 as well.

Here are three sleeper picks to consider for tonight’s MLB World Series Game 2.

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Saturday's Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions

Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (1.81X)

Merill Kelly has thrown three games in the postseason this year. In two of the three, he’s allowed no more than one run. However, he also pitched a game against the Phillies, where he allowed three home runs and four earned runs in 5.2 innings.

Kelly has struggled more against lefties this year. In the last 30 days, he’s allowed a .212 ISO and wOBA of .315. He’s also earned under 35% ground balls, with over 30% of line drives to lefties in the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, Corey Seager is hitting a .265 ISO and wOBA of .416 against his last 59 righties. He’s also struck out only 13.6% of the time in the previous 30 days against righties. The left-hander slugger has smacked nearly 44% of line drives and fly balls over the last month, with over 58% of hard contact and a 19.5% barrel percentage.

I’ll take my chances with Seager.

Evan Carter Over .5 Hits (1.44X)

I’m also high on Evan Carter. He’s another lefty who should be able to do some damage on Merrill Kelly. Again, Kelly has struggled against lefties, allowing over 60% of hard contact. He’s also allowed a 17.4% barrel percentage to lefties in the last 30 days and has earned under 10% of swinging strikes.

On the other hand, Carter has smacked a .214 ISO and wOBA of .428. The left-handed rookie has also struck out only 20.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.

Carter rarely hits ground balls and has smacked 45.2% of hard contact. He’s also hit the highest BABIP on the team against righties, with a .400. That means he’s getting on base 40% of the time when he’s putting the ball in play.

Let’s ride with Carter to get at least one hit.

Jordan Montgomery Under 2.5 ERs (1.63X)

Jordan Mongomery has been huge for the Rangers this season. The left-hander has thrown 25 innings, with four starts and a relief appearance. In those 25 innings, he’s allowed 28 hits but has only given up seven runs (six earned). The lefty has also added 17 strikeouts and just four walks.

However, what matters the most is how poor Arizona has been against lefties.

The projected lineup has only hit a .126 ISO and wOBA of .294, with 22.1% of strikeouts and 4.3% of walks against lefties in the last 30 days. Only Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, and Tommy Pham have hit for power in the previous month against lefties.

Meanwhile, Montgomery has held teams to a .112 ISO and wOBA of .294 over the last 30 days and has allowed only 4.5% of walks.

The Diamondbacks don’t match up well against Montgomery. I’ll take Montgomery to give up fewer than three earned runs tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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