MLB Trends & Betting Systems Picks: Tuesday (5/27)
With a full slate of games tonight, there’s plenty of value on the MLB betting board. I looked over many profitable MLB betting systems and added three bets for tonight’s games.
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Friday’s Best MLB Betting System Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB +1.5 Run Line – Plus Money (Home)
This first system has a 29.1% return on investment (ROI) over its last 170 bets. It’s won 54% of the time and has added nearly 50 units of profit. Ultimately, to fit the criteria, the team must be +1.5 on the run line with odds of +100 or higher at home.
The Los Angeles Angels have a run line of +1.5 (+100) against the New York Yankees tonight. The Yankees are certainly the better overall team. However, even the worst teams will pick up 50+ wins this season.
New York will throw out Carlos Rodon for tonight’s showdown. Rodon is a left-handed pitcher who has performed well against right-handed hitters over the last month. Still, he doesn’t have the most favorable matchup. After all, the Angels will likely have eight righties in the lineup. Rodon has already walked 10.6% of righties this season. If he starts giving up walks at a high rate, that could be a major concern.
Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson will get the call for the Angels. He’s a lefty who has struggled against righties recently. Still, he’s held righties to a .145 ISO and wOBA of .247. The veteran will have bumps in the road, but he’s facing a Yankees lineup that still has four batters who have hit .059 or worse against lefties over the last 30 days.
Why not give the Angels a shot?
Pick: Angels +1.5 (+100)
MLB Moneyline Away 6PM
The “MLB Moneyline Away 6PM” system has earned a 7.2% ROI over its last 319 bets. It’s added more than 23 units of profit over the last year.
To qualify, a team has to be between -110 to +150 on the Moneyline. In addition, the same team must be on the road, coming off a loss after failing to cover the run line in the previous game. Finally, the team also has to ensure the game starts in the 6:00 pm local time block.
The Braves will take on the Phillies on the road tonight. Spencer Strider will get the call, too. The superstar righty hasn’t looked like himself just yet. But we know how good Strider can be when healthy.
He’ll battle Ranger Suarez of the Phillies, who also missed a lot of time due to injury earlier in the season. This should be a pitching duel, but the Braves will have better matchups with more righties to face the lefty Suarez. That should be the difference. Consider the Braves.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-105)
TB Under 1.5
If you’re looking for a player prop, check out the “TB Under 1.5” system. This system looks for players to go under their total bases prop at a line of 1.5 or 2. To meet the criteria, each player must have hit the over in fewer than 41% of games. In addition, each player has to have hit the over in none of the last five games, no more than four of the last 10 games and no more than eight of the last 15 games.
Alejandro Kirk has a difficult matchup against Nathan Eovaldi tonight. Kirk has hit a .152 ISO and wOBA of .396 against righties over the last month. However, he’s competing against Eovaldi, who has limited his last 55 righties to a .038 ISO and wOBA of .197.
Eovaldi has earned more than 55% of ground balls and has allowed 18.4% of fly balls. He’s also struck out more than 25% of righties and has walked only 5.5% of righties.
This isn’t an ideal spot for Kirk. Eovaldi is hard to hit.
Pick: Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 Total Bases (-200)