MLB Trends & Betting Systems Picks: Tuesday (6/3)
I’m targeting three MLB betting systems and trends plays for tonight’s MLB slate. Join the fun and consider tailing the three best bets below.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Betting System & Trends Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Home dog sys 1 +130 to +220
The “Home dog sys 1 +130 to +220” system has earned a 19.4% return on investment (ROI) over its last 69 bets. It’s only won 48% of the time, but it has still brought in nearly 14 units of profit during that stretch.
This system looks for teams at home with a Moneyline of +130 to +220. Additionally, the last game had to have gone over for that team, and the same team can’t have covered the run line in the previous game.
Ultimately, the Athletics fit the criteria. They’re coming off a loss to the Minnesota Twins last night and it’s +160 on the Moneyline in tonight’s game. Minnesota will send Pablo Lopez to the mound, who has been excellent this season. However, he’s still allowed a .209 ISO to his last 50 righties. Those 50 righties have also hit 43.3% of fly balls and just 20% of ground balls.
The A’s have five righties in their projected lineup, and those righties have hit a .348 wOBA over the last month against righties.
On the other hand, it’ll be Jacob Lopez for the Athletics. He’s a lefty who has only thrown against 38 batters in the last 30 days. He’s limited walks to righties and has allowed just 37.5% of hard contact to righties. Lopez should face a full lineup of righties when he faces the Twins tonight. However, in the Twins’ lineup, there are six batters with an ISO of no better than .100 against lefties over the last 30 days.
The Athletics are live underdogs.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+160)
MLB LAD Overs – Totals
If only all systems were as simple as Dodgers games to go over the total.
The over is 107-64-7 over the last 177 Dodgers games dating back to last year. This system has generated an 18.4% ROI and achieved nearly 33 units of profit during that period.
The Mets will send out Tylor Megill for tonight’s game after earning a win last night. Megill has the worst ERA on the Mets over the past month, and he’s struggled particularly against left-handed hitters. Megill has allowed 21.2% of walks against lefties and has given up a .403 wOBA to lefties in that same period.
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are all live against Megill.
On the other hand, Clayton Kershaw will get the start. The veteran lefty has allowed a .233 ISO and wOBA of .402 to his first 37 righties faced this season. The Mets should have seven righties in the lineup, which will help their case on offense.
Let’s take the over per this system.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-115)
MLB BAL Away – Spread
Backing the Orioles on the run line over the last 83 games on the road has been profitable. They’ve won against the run line in 52% of games over the last year and have earned a 2.1% ROI during that stretch.
Tonight, they’ll take on the Seattle Mariners and are +1.5 (-165) on the run line.
Baltimore will ride it out with Tomoyuki Sugano. He’s limited walks to 2% over the last month and has allowed just a .290 wOBA. Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Mariners lineup with a .126 ISO and wOBA of .275 over the last 30 days against righties.
On the other hand, it’ll be George Kirby for Seattle. Kirby has made two starts this season and has allowed a .333 ISO and wOBA of .472 with 19% of strikeouts. He has an excellent track record, but has struggled immensely to start the year.
Let’s fade Kirby and the Mariners and wager on the Orioles.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (-165)