Top 3 MLB Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/7)
The MLB Playoffs are here! We’ve got four exciting Wild Card matches for today’s slate.
The MLB has games throughout the day, with no game overlapping another.
Let’s get right to it. Here are the top three bets for today’s slate.
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- Top 4 MLB Wild Card Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Shane McClanahan will take the hill for the Rays tonight. He’s a left-handed pitcher who even started the All-Star game this year after a tremendous first half of the season.
However, in the second half, McClanahan started to struggle a bit. In the last 30 days, after coming off the injured list, McClanahan has a 5.85 xFIP. He’s struck out under 15% of batters and has walked nearly 10% of batters. The lefty won’t give up a ton of line drives, but he’s also not earning a high rate of grounders either.
Cleveland is hitting a .320 wOBA against lefties and has four batters hitting a wOBA of at least .375 against lefties over the last month. Those hitters include Andres Gimenez, Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias, and Myles Straw. Meanwhile, the top of the order has been hitting way more line drives against lefties recently.
Meanwhile, it’ll be Shane Bieber on the mound for the Guardians. He’s holding a 3.55 xFIP in the last 30 days and has limited walks to just 1.9% in the previous month. Plus, he’s earning 50% of grounders and keeping line drives down to 18.6% in those 30 days.
He’ll face a Rays lineup that has hit a .106 ISO and wOBA of .281 in the last month. I’ll take the veteran ace in this one.
Bet: Guardians (-125 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Heading into the postseason, neither offense has looked exceptional.
Jose Quintana will get the start for the Cardinals. He’s a lefty with a 3.66 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s also earned nearly 52% of ground balls when balls are put in play. Meanwhile, the Phillies have hit a .131 ISO and wOBA of .287 against lefties over the last month. Only Jean Segura has been consistently hitting lefties at a high rate over the last month.
On the flip side, Zack Wheeler will get the first start for the Phillies. He’s got a 2.36 xFIP over his last 52 plate appearances. Wheeler has induced nearly 64% of grounders when the ball is put in play. He also struck out 28.8% of batters while only walking 1.9%.
The Cardinals have limited strikeouts against righties, but the projected lineup has also hit an ISO of just .164 with a wOBA of .310 in the last month.
I’m taking the under in this game.
Bet: Under 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays will not enjoy facing Luis Castillo in the series’ first game.
Castillo is a ground ball pitcher, earning nearly 50% in the last 30 days when balls are hit into play. The Blue Jays are currently hitting 52.7% of ground balls as a projected lineup against righties in the last 30 days.
Even if Castillo gets into trouble, there’s a good chance he can get out of it with a ground-ball double play or a strikeout.
I should mention Castillo has also struck out over 29% of batters faced in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Alek Manoah will man the mound for the Blue Jays. He’s kept his wOBA and ISO down against both sides of the plate, but he’s holding a 5.31 xFIP over the last 30 days with a BABIP of .184. That BABIP of .184 will be hard to replicate in the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are hitting a .241 ISO and wOBA of .344 in the last 30 days against righties. Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh are two of five batters who are hitting an above-average ISO and wOBA in the last month against righties.
I’ve got the Mariners winning Game 1.
Bet: Mariners (+115 at DraftKings )
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