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MLB World Series Game 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (Phillies/Astros)

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We’ve got the first game of the World Series on the horizon tonight. The Houston Astros, the American League’s one-seed, will take on the National League sixth-seed in the Philadelphia Phillies. Therefore, the Astros will get home-field advantage for this best-of-seven series.

Houston hasn’t lost a game in the postseason, but the Phillies have been incredibly difficult to beat in the postseason, too.

How will tonight’s Game 1 play out? Here are our best bets for the World Series opener between the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

The Astros will start Justin Verlander for Game 1 of the World Series. Verlander had an incredible regular season, which may eventually earn him another AL Cy Young; however, he’s holding a 6.30 ERA in the postseason and isn’t inducing a high amount of grounders while allowing 50% of hard contact.

Over the last 30 days, Verlander has had a 2.04 xFIP. He’s also struck out 35.6% of batters while walking just 4.4%. Meanwhile, he still has a BABIP of .340 and has allowed 25% of line drives when the ball is batted into play.

The right-hander has dominated lefties with a wOBA of .237 and ISO of .089 in their last 50 plate appearances against him. Righties have a .334 wOBA and ISO of .237 in their previous 40 plate appearances against Verlander. The Phillies are hitting a .199 ISO and wOBA of .308 against righties over the last month with their probable lineup. They’ve also hit 22.2% of line drives against righties and have walked 8.1%. Still, Philadelphia has struck out 22.7% of the time and only has two right-handed batters that have hit for power against righties lately.

Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto have above-average ISO numbers against righties over the last month. However, Hoskins has a wOBA of .291 with 31.9% of strikeouts over his last 30 days against righties, while Realmuto has a .321 wOBA with 30.2% of strikeouts in his last 30 days against righties.

The two significant performers for the Phillies offensively against righties are Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but Verlander has pitched way better against lefties over the last month.

On the other hand, Aaron Nola will get the call for the Phillies. He’s holding a 1.91 xFIP over the last 30 days. The right-hander has struck out 29.4% of batters while only walking 2.5%. He’s also allowed a high line drive rate of 24.1% but is earning close to 45% of grounders over the last 30 days.

Nola has pitched consistently against righties and lefties, keeping his wOBA and ISO numbers at solid rates throughout the last month. He will allow more line drives and induce fewer ground balls against righties. He will face five of them in Houston’s lineup, including Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Chas McCormick.

Altuve is hitting a high ISO with a low wOBA. But Pena, Bregman, and McCormick slugged a high ISO and wOBA over the last 30 days. The lefties, like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, have not hit consistently against righties recently.

Both pitchers should dominate in tonight’s game, but if there’s one lineup I trust more, it’s the Houston Astros.

If you’re looking to bet on the total, I’d still stick with the Under.

Bet: Astros (-165 at DraftKings)
Bet: Under 6.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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