MLB World Series Game 5 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Astros vs. Phillies (11/3)
The Houston Astros avoid their first losing streak since September 28-30 in historic fashion by no-hitting the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4. With the series now nodded at two games apiece, we have a pivotal Game 5 tonight, as in 45 of the previous 64 (70.3%) instances where a best-of-seven series has been tied 2-2, the Game 5 winner has gone on to win the series.
Who will put themselves in the driver’s seat and take a 3-2 lead heading back to Houston?
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB World Series action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
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Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies O/U
Verlander is a bonafide first-ballot Hall of Famer and is likely on his way to winning his third Cy Young Award this year. However, he has yet to be able to solve the conundrum of pitching in the World Series. In eight World Series starts, Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. That includes a Game 1 performance against Philadelphia, where he was rocked for five runs on six hits in five innings.
Syndergaard went 5-2 in ten appearances (nine starts) after joining the Phillies at the trade deadline. However, his WHIP, H/9, and K rates were worse with Philadelphia than when he pitched for the Los Angeles Angels. Syndergaard has made three appearances this postseason, totaling 5.1 innings, and allowed just one earned run on three hits in that span.
Syndergaard is not likely to be given a long leash in this game, seeing as his longest postseason appearance this year was three innings. While Philadelphia will likely have to piece at least 18 outs together among four or more relievers, the advantage shifts mightily to Houston, whose bullpen has allowed no earned runs in 10.1 innings this year.
Verlander’s World Series struggles are well-documented, but we believe his whole body of work will eventually win out. Verlander ranked fifth in xERA and ninth in BB%. In addition, he allowed a .240 BABIP and an 80.5% LOB rate, and his 0.62 HR/9 rate was the second-lowest of his career). Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Jean Segura all had a wRC+ 92 or less against right-handed pitching.
We expect Verlander to exorcise the World Series demons and turn in a fantastic outing, but for value’s sake, we are eschewing Houston’s rather steep moneyline odds in favor of the Under.
Bet: Astros-Phillies Under 7.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.