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NASCAR Futures: 2024 Updated Xfinity Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

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As the month of August begins, the NASCAR industry looks on when seven days from now, cars (and trucks) will be back on track for the first time since the two-week break for the 2024 Summer Olympics. After getting away myself for a few days in the mountains, I’m back, ready to continue firing bets on stock car racing.

So much so that this week, I’m bringing you a two-pack of articles covering the updated 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series and Truck Series Championship odds.

Let’s start with what many fans - including myself - are calling the greatest series in the sport right now: Xfinity.

NASCAR Futures: Updated 2024 Xfinity Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Odds Breakdown

Given that only eight full-time Xfinity Series drivers have won across the 20 races this season, the short odds atop the board are justified. What isn’t justified, though, is favorite Chandler Smith‘s +270 pricetag. The 22-year-old came out of the gates hot, winning two of the first six races. However, over the past 10, he has an average finish of 19.0.

Yet, The Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) driver is not the only one overpriced in the futures market. Sam Mayer (+550) has two wins on the season, most recently finding victory lane at Iowa in June. However, since then, he’s had an average finish of 19.0, with no finish better than P10. There are three upcoming tracks that Mayer won at last season (Watkins Glen, ROVAL, and Homestead). Still, it’s tough to envision he has any chance at the championship race in Phoenix, given his hit-or-miss short track program this season.

Riley Herbst (12-1) got a win last time out at Indianapolis, but that was just his second-career victory in the Xfinity Series. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed (18-1) has never won in the series. Jesse Love is intriguing for his elite racecraft at various track types and winning upside. Still, it’s hard to trust that a rookie will have the consistency down the stretch at some tracks he’s never raced an Xfinity Series car at before.

All this to say, that there isn’t a ton of value on the board overall, but two names do stick out at current prices.

Cole Custer: Championship Winner (+350 via Caesars) | 1.5u

Cole Custer has a chance to be the sixth driver in the past 30 years to go back-to-back at winning the Xfinity Series Championship, joining a list that includes the likes of Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr. and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

The driver of the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 00 might only have one win this season, but don’t get it twisted; He has been the best driver in the Xfinity Series. His 16 T10s in 20 races leads the series by three. He is also tied for the most T5s (nine). With a series-leading average starting position (5.6) and average finishing position (8.4), Custer really should be the favorite.

Having built a 56-point cushion for the regular series championship all but ensures Custer will make the Round of 8. From there, Las Vegas (finished runner-up there in the spring), Homestead (led 114 laps and won stage one last season) and Martinsville (P8 finish and T5 in both stages) stand in his way of a ticket to the Championship 4. Once in Phoenix, he should be the favorite, given his championship win last year and P5 finish there in the spring.

Shopping around, +350 at Ceasars is the best number I can find for Custer to repeat. That’s a number worth taking, in my opinion.

Shane van Gisbergen: Championship Winner (+3500 via FanDuel) | 1u

Let me set the record straight by saying I don’t think that Supercars-champion-turned-NASCAR-phenom Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) can win the championship. However, I think he can advance far enough to get you a nice cashout if you bet this number at a book that hedges itself as aggressively as FanDuel does.

SVG is leading the standings in wins (three) and playoff points (17), and he has an opportunity to add to those totals before the playoffs at Watkins Glen on Sept. 15. The first round of the playoffs also sets up nicely for the Kiwi. Talladega is an opportunity for SVG to continue to build on his two T5s at large ovals this season. Plus, he’ll be the favorite at the ROVAL to close out the round.

After that, you should get at least a 2-1 cashout, or you can try to ride it out longer and hope he makes it to the Championship 4. His playoff points will give him an advantage, and he has vastly improved on the ovals. It’ll just come down to whether you trust him at tracks like Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville.

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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