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NASCAR Futures: Updated 2024 Cup Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

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If you’re like most of us, you shift gears and slow down some in the summertime. While the NASCAR world seemingly never truly sleeps, we have reached the two-week break in the schedule in observance of the 2024 Summer Olympics.

Sure, Silly season moves and the 2025 schedule release are still expected during this off time, but races will pause until we return to Richmond, Va., on the weekend of Aug. 10. That gives us the perfect opportunity to re-examine the NASAR Cup Series Championship futures betting market.

Here’s a recap of where my future betting card stands heading into the sport’s recess:

  • Denny Hamlin Over 2.5 Wins (+108) | 2u = Cashed ✅
  • Joey Logano Over 1.5 Wins (+105) | 2u = Hold ⏯️
  • Jesse Love Over 0.5 Xfinity Wins (-140) | 1.5u = Cashed ✅
  • Kyle Larson Championship Winner (6-1) | .5u = Hold ⏯️
  • Kyle Larson To Make Championship 4 (+120) | 2u = Hold ⏯️
  • Ross Chastain Championship Winner (20-1) | .7u = Hold ⏯️
  • Erik Jones Championship Winner (120-1) | .7u = Cashed Out ♻️
  • Ryan Blaney Championship Winner (12-1) | 1u = Hold ⏯️

By the end of April, I’d already cashed in on Denny Hamlin’s and Jesse Love’s season win total bets. And thanks to a recent surge by Team Penske, we’re also halfway to our Joey Logano win total bet.

As for the championship wagers, I’m feeling good about my Kyle Larson plays. If luck doesn’t work against him in the postseason, he should secure himself a seat in the Championship 4. I was also thankfully able to cash out my full wager on Erik Jones once he injured his back this spring. That leaves only my futures on Ryan Blaney (that I accidentally placed when trying to bet a race outright) and Ross Chastain.

Blaney recently got his second win at Pocono, pushing his odds to as low as 8-1 at some shops. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain is winless and getting closer to the cutline, making our 20-1 ticket feel dead in the water.

Nonetheless, let’s take a deeper look at the current 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds and make at least one more best bet to ride out for the remaining 14 races.

NASCAR Futures: Updated 2024 Cup Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Odds Breakdown

Aside from surprise winners Austin Cindric (75-1) and Daniel Saurez (110-1), nobody over 25-1 odds is currently locked into the playoffs. With a chaotic first round of the playoffs on deck, including tracks like Atlanta, Watkins Glen and Bristol, there might be a chance to invest in the No. 2 or No. 99 car and cash out at a profit if either makes the Round 0f 12.

If I’m picking one of two, it would be the Mexican-born Suarez. His win this season came at “Hotlanta,” and he’s an above-average road course racer. Suarez is also tied for 10th in playoff points (five).

Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski‘s odds feel a bit long for someone who is ninth in season points and has the ninth-best average finish (14.4), ahead of heavier favorites like Christopher Bell (15.6), Hamlin (15.2), Blaney (14.4) and Logano (17.5). The Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) owner/driver sets up well for the first two rounds of the playoffs but could struggle later in the Round of 8, containing tracks like Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville.

Aside from one other driver (whom I’ll feature in my best bet), the remaining middle-tier drivers feel accurately priced.

The favorites also align with my handicapping but are currently too low to invest in. If, at some point, Bell re-opens at anything above 5-1, I’d hammer down. Bell told me at Pocono that he’s “refreshed by the speed” he’s had recently, and he’s been by far and away the fastest come the short-flat tracks like Phoenix, where the championship race is held.

Now, let’s get into my best bet for the updated NASCAR 2024 Cup Series Championship odds.

Tyler Reddick: Championship Winner (15-1 via Caesars) | .5u

In his second season with 23XI Racing, Tyler Reddick opened at 14-1 prior to the Busch Light Clash. Despite being third in points and in a position to potentially win the regular season championship, the California native’s odds peaked at 16-1 and have now settled at 15-1 at Caesars.

Surprisingly, Reddick has the best average starting position (9.3) and the second-best average finishing position (11.3), behind only Chase Elliott (10.5). He might only have one win this season, coming at Talladega, but he had near wins coming at Las Vegas, Darlington and the Chicago Street Race. Bettors should thank their lucky stars he didn’t find victory lane any of those days, or a 15-1 price would not be available.

Given his road course prowess and the eight playoff points he’s already built up - plus the regular-season standings bonus he’ll get - Reddick should be able to skate through to the Round of 8. From there, he’d have a race at Las Vegas (finished runner-up in the spring), Homestead (three T5s in four Cup Series races there) and Martinsville (finished P7 in the spring) to punch his ticket to the Championship 4.

Having a 15-1 ticket on Reddick going into the championship race would give you a ton of opportunity to hedge, making sure you come out of Phoenix a winner.

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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