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NBA Finals First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Monday (Nuggets vs. Heat)

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We’re headed to Game 5 of the NBA Finals tonight! The Denver Nuggets currently lead the Miami Heat in the series, 3-1. and are now one win away from earning an NBA Championship.

And they’ll have a chance to win the trophy on their home floor as nearly 10-point favorites.

Will the Nuggets come out strong and aggressive to begin tonight’s game? Here’s a first-basket option that you should consider for tonight’s Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Although the Nuggets have won their last two games against the Heat, Miami has started each game with a tip win and a first basket from Bam Adebayo. The Heat have now scored the first basket in three straight games against the Nuggets while also earning the tip in all three games.

The Heat have earned the tip in 49% of games this year, while the Nuggets earned the tip in 47% of games. Both teams have attempted the first shot in 50% of games, but it’s the Nuggets earning a much higher rate of first baskets, even with Miami’s success over the last three games.

The Nuggets have earned the first basket in 50% of games. The Heat have only scored the first basket in 39% of games. However, Miami’s probability continues to rise, especially when they win the tip.

Miami has won the tip in four of six games against the Nuggets this season. However, something should be said about the lack of efficiency that Miami brings to the table. Miami has had 11 instances this season where they’ve taken the first shot but didn’t score the first basket. It’s no guarantee that Miami will score first if they win the tip.

In the last couple of games, the first shot hasn’t been the first make. Therefore, I’m going to take Denver to score first. Nikola Jokic has scored 16 first baskets and has 13 first shots. Jokic might not be the first shooter in the game, but he’ll be featured throughout the entire game.

Bet: Nikola Jokic (+350)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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