NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Knicks vs. Spurs (Game 1)
There are plenty of intriguing Market-based EV wagers to make with tonight’s NBA Finals matchup between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. The goal of the Market-Based EV page is to identify valuable bets with positive expected value. I’ve listed three NBA Finals picks below.
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Wednesday’s Best +EV NBA Finals Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Stephon Castle Over 17.5 Points (+120 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +6%
Stephon Castle has scored at least 18 points in just four of his last 10 games. He’s hit this line in just 40% of his last 20 games. However, in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder, Castle saw a 27.7% usage rate and played almost 36 minutes. He struggled to get to the foul line in that one and ultimately missed out on 18 points.
Still, the fair value for Castle to add at least 18 points is +108. At BetMGM, you can add this bet at +120. That’s a 6% positive expected value bet, and a wager you have to consider for tonight’s game.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +142
- Market EV: +1%
Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most underrated big-man shooters in the NBA. He drilled three three-pointers in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavaliers and has shot 47.3% from deep over the last 10 games.
Towns doesn’t always take a ton of three-pointers. But he’s been hitting these shots at nearly 50%. If he takes four three-pointer attempts, there’s a legitimate chance he’ll nail two threes.
You can land Towns to add at least two threes at +145 on Hard Rock Bet. His fair value is +142, giving this a minor market EV of 1%. It’s still a quality bet.
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists (+100 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -102
- Market EV: +1%
The Knicks are at their best when Josh Hart is distributing the ball. In the first three games of the last series, Hart added at least five assists in each. In the fourth game, he had six assists on 15 potential assists in just 24 minutes of game action. He can tally up assists in no time.
Ultimately, you can bet on Hart to add at least five assists at +100 on Hard Rock Bet. The fair value is -102. It’s another small +EV play, but it’s totally worth it.