NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Knicks vs. Spurs (Game 2)
The Market-based EV page is filled with numerous value NBA Finals picks for Game 2 between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs.
The Knicks took Game 1 and now have a much higher percentage of winning the NBA Finals. The team that wins Game 1 in the NBA Finals has gone on to win the series about 70% of the time. Let’s see if the Spurs have some fight in them for Game 2.
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Friday’s Best +EV NBA Finals Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 Rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -128
- Market EV: +5%
Keldon Johnson played only eight minutes in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He barely saw any opportunities on the glass. However, prior to that game, Johnson had earned at least three rebounds in four consecutive games. He’s averaged nearly five rebounds a game over the last 10 games and has hit this line in 77% of games this season.
Johnson also averaged five rebounds per game against the Knicks in his last eight games. The only time he missed this line was in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The Spurs will likely switch some things up with their rotations in Game 2. That could mean Johnson getting more minutes. You can bet on him to go over 2.5 rebounds at -115 on BetMGM. The fair value is -128.
Josh Hart Under 8.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +100
- Market EV: +3%
Josh Hart stunned with 15 rebounds in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. That said, he grabbed 15 of his 17 rebound chances. That’s incredibly difficult to mimic. Plus, Hart averaged fewer than 14 rebound chances over the last 10 games.
Hart is a ball hawk, but asking for nine rebounds is tricky.
You can bet on him to go under 8.5 rebounds at +105 on BetMGM. The fair value is +100. That’s a 3% positive-expected-value play.
Luke Kornet Under 1.5 Points (+122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +113
- Market EV: +4%
Luke Kornet scored zero points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals despite playing more than 10 minutes. He’s had multiple games with one or no field-goal attempts in the playoffs and has shot below 36% from the field over the last 10 games. For a big man, that’s really bad.
Therefore, consider Kornet to go under 1.5 points at +122 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The fair value is +113, making this a 4% positive-expected-value bet.