NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Knicks vs. Spurs (Game 5)
This could be the final game of the NBA season. Therefore, let’s take advantage of some of the valuable Market-based EV NBA Finals picks for Game 5 between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs.
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Saturday’s Best +EV NBA Finals Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 0.5 Blocks (+140 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +128
- Market EV: +5%
Karl-Anthony Towns has earned at least one block in eight of his last 10 games. That said, he didn’t have a single block in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Towns also averaged just 0.6 blocks per game over his last 12 games against the Spurs, adding at least one block in only 42% of games against San Antonio.
You can bet on him to go under 0.5 blocks at +140 on BetMGM. Meanwhile, the fair value of this bet is +128. This is a 5% positive expected value play, and it’s one of the best bets you’ll find for tonight.
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds (+110 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +103
- Market EV: +3%
Victor Wembanyama has hauled in at least 12 rebounds in five of his last 20 games. He’s hit this line in just three of his last 10 games, but he’s also averaged 12.1 rebounds per game in his last 10 games against the Knicks.
Wembanyama has had about 17 rebound chances per game over his last 10 outings. He also just had 19 rebound chances in Game 4 against the Knicks in 44 minutes. With all hands on deck, Wembanyama won’t be taking many breaks. He’ll have a lot of opportunities.
Wembanyama’s over is +110 at BetMGM, while the fair value is currently +103. That’s another solid play to add to the betting portfolio.
Devin Vassell Under 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-125 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: -130
- Market EV: +2%
Devin Vassell was absolutely terrific from downtown in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. He drilled 5-0f-8 from deep and has now hit at least three three-pointers in three consecutive games. However, throughout the season, Vassell drained at least three three-pointers in only 43% of games. His usage rate has been below 15% in every game of this series.
Vassell’s under is -125 at PartyCasino, and the fair value is -130. It’s a small positive-expected-value play, but it’s still something to consider.