NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Spurs vs. Knicks (Game 3)
There’s plenty of value on the Market-based EV page for tonight’s Game 3 NBA Finals matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. Let’s take advantage of our top three NBA picks on the board.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Finals Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+135 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: +127
- Market EV: +3%
Stephon Castle hasn’t been overly consistent in the three-point column. However, he still hit two three-pointers in Game 2 after attempting four threes in that game. Castle has attempted 10 combined three-pointers in the first two games of this series. He shot only 20% from deep in Game 1, but shot 50% in Game 2.
You can bet on Castle to drill at least two threes at +135 odds on PartyCasino, which is a 3% positive expected value play. The fair value is +127. It’s one of the best bets on the board right now.
Jose Alvarado Over 0.5 Made Three-Pointers (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +124
- Market EV: +3%
Jose Alvarado has proven he’s not shy when on the floor. He’s only played about 10 minutes per game over the last three games, but he’s taken six threes during that stretch.
Alvarado drilled at least one three-pointer in 68% of games this season and has nailed at least one three-pointer in eight of his last 12 games against the Spurs.
Ultimately, you can bet on him to go over 0.5 made three-pointers at +130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The fair value is +124. It’s another 3% play to add to the betting portfolio.
Dylan Harper Over 13.5 Points (-105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -110
- Market EV: +2%
After watching the first two games, it’s clear Dylan Harper is San Antonio’s most consistent player. He was so good in Game 1 that the Spurs played him 32 minutes in Game 2. He’s played remarkably well with Victor Wembanyama.
You can add Harper to score at least 14 points at -105 odds on BetMGM. The fair value is -110, giving this play a 2% positive expected value. That’s another solid position to hold before the game begins.