NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (2/26)
There will only be four first-basket scorers on tonight’s NBA slate. Our goal is to find at least one of those four to make some profit in tonight’s first-basket market.
Let’s get right to it!
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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
Jakob Poeltl has only won the tip in 50% of his last ten games with the Toronto Raptors. However, in those ten games, the Raptors have been the first team to score in 60% of those games. Essentially, the Raptors have scored in six of those ten games where Poeltl was the tip-man.
He’ll go up against Myles Turner, who has had 17 opening tips in the Pacers’ last 20 games. Turner has only won the tip in 47% of games, and the Pacers have scored first in just 35% of games where Turner was the tip-man.
Over the last 20 games, the Pacers have allowed centers to score 35% of the first basket. Point guards have also hit 25% of the first basket against the Pacers.
Therefore, Jakob Poeltl or Immanuel Quickley are the two players I’m looking at to score first in this game.
Poeltl has attempted the team’s first field goal attempt in 40% of the 17 games he’s started. He’s also scored the first basket 30% of the time over his last ten games, which is three of his previous ten.
Therefore, we’ll roll with Poeltl at +500 odds to score first tonight.
Bet: Jakob Poeltl (+500)
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
Bam Adebayo is already 1-0 against Domantas Sabonis regarding tips this season.
Over the last 20 games, Adebayo has won the tip in 55% of games, but the Heat have scored the first basket in 70% of matchups. On the other hand, Sabonis has only won the tip in 25% of games, and the Kings have scored first in only 35% of their last 20 games.
The Heat have the advantage. Adebayo should win the tip and give Miami the first chance to score.
The Kings have allowed 30% of their first baskets in the last 20 days to small forwards. They’ve also given up 20% of their first baskets to shooting guards in the previous 20 games and 25% to centers. Those are the three positions I’ll be targeting.
It’s unlikely Jimmy Butler is in the lineup. Therefore, we’ll likely see Adebayo with Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Over the last 20 games, Bam Adebayo has been the most consistent, scoring four first baskets in that time frame. He’s taken the first basket in 20% of games in the last 20 and has attempted the team’s first field goal attempt in 20% of games in the previous 20. Let’s ride Bam at +460.
Bet: Chet Holmgren (+460)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: