NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/23)
We’ve only got four games on the NBA slate tonight. There’s not much action, but two of those four games will be nationally televised on NBA TV.
Three of the four games have spreads sitting at four points or fewer. So at least oddsmakers are expecting some tight games.
I’m looking at a few first-basket bets for the night. All we need is one to hit to profit.
Thursday’s Best First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets and Cavaliers just played against one another. The Nets won the tip but ultimately let the Cavaliers score first.
Cleveland has won the tip in 64% of games this season, while the Nets have only won the tip in 44% of games this year. There’s a higher probability that the Cavaliers win the tip and take the first shot. In the most recent game, Jarrett Allen scored the first bucket on a layup after being questionable to play throughout the day.
However, Darius Garland has the most first-shot attempts for the Cavaliers with 15. He’s usually the player taking the first shot for the Cavs. If Cleveland has the ball first, expect Garland to be the first scorer.
Bet: Darius Garland (+650)
Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The Charlotte Hornets have only won the tip in 37% of games this season. On the other hand, the Pelicans have won the tip in 50% of games and have scored the first basket 11% of the time more than the Hornets.
The Hornets won the tip in one meeting between these two teams but still watched the Pelicans score first. It was Brandon Ingram that time. Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas have scored 27 first baskets for the Pelicans this year. You can’t go wrong with either one. If one hits, we’ll profit.
Bet: Jonas Valanciunas (+400)
Bet: Brandon Ingram (+500)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Thunder are so bad at winning the tip this year. Oklahoma City has added just 26% of tip wins this season, while the Clippers have earned almost 50% of the tips.
The Thunder and Clippers have each scored 47% of first baskets this season, but it’s the Clippers attempting way more first shots than the Thunder.
The Clippers still have a higher probability of scoring first. Paul George is out with a knee injury. Kawhi Leonard has only made four first baskets this season on nine first-shot attempts. And Russell Westbrook rarely looks for the first shot of the game. So let’s go with a lottery play and take Marcus Morris to score first. He already has seven first baskets this season.
Bet: Marcus Morris (+950)
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