NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Thursday (1/30)
If you’re looking for a quick fix in the NBA tonight, check out the NBA first-basket market. While sometimes it feels like luck, there are so many stats to pay attention to in this market. I’ll discuss some of those stats and provide a couple of best bets for tonight’s action below.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
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Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers are among the best teams at winning the tip-off this season. The Cavaliers have added the tip in 80.9% of games this season and have scored the first basket in 29 games this year. That rate could be a bit higher, but ultimately, four out of five times, the Cavaliers will win the tip with the chance to score first.
Tonight, the Cavaliers will take on the Atlanta Hawks, who have only won the tip 48.9% of the time. The Hawks aren’t even averaging 50% in the tip this year, but they have 22 first baskets. Ultimately, behind Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers are in much better shape to win the tip, as Clint Capela won’t start tonight. Instead, it’ll be Onyeka Okongwu going up against Allen for the tip.
That favors the Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell has taken the first shot the most for the Cavs. He has attempted the first shot 23.3% of the time and has made seven first baskets. Ultimately, Cleveland is very good at passing the rock around, but Mitchell has scored the first basket in 16.3% of games this year and has the highest first-shot percentage on the Cavs. Let’s roll with him to score first.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell (+440)
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies will use Zach Edey in tonight’s tip-off against Houston’s Alperen Sengun. Although Sengun and the Rockets have only won the tip in 41.3% of games this season, they have added the first basket in 27 games this year. That’s a very high rate relative to tip wins, and it likely will drop a bit as the season continues.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have won the tip in 74.5% of games behind Edey and have scored 31 first baskets. Memphis looks much better on paper to score the first basket.
This season, it’s mostly Desmond Bane scoring first. He’s added 11 first baskets in 37 starts and has scored the first basket in 28.9% of games this season. That’s one of the best rates in the NBA right now. Let’s see if he can continue his streak with another first basket tonight.
Pick: Desmond Bane (+550)