NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Thursday (2/27)
Although tonight’s NBA slate only has five games, the board still has some value, specifically in the first-basket market.
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic
The Golden State Warriors are starting games very small. Therefore, they’re using Draymond Green for the opening tip. Ultimately, he’s participated in eight opening tip-offs and has won just 25% of them.
He’ll go up against Wendell Carter Jr. of the Magic, who has won 58% of tip-offs.
Neither team has scored the first basket above 50% of the time. However, Orlando is likely to have the first attempt, which counts for something. Additionally, the Warriors have allowed the first basket to shooting guards 34% of the time. That’s easily the highest rate of any position this season for the Warriors.
The shooting guard for the Magic is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s already taken Orlando’s first basket attempt in 28% of games. He’s also tied with Franz Wagner with six first baskets this season. Let’s give Caldwell-Pope a chance, especially since he’s +950 to score first.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (+950)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Minnesota Timberwolves could use Naz Reid for tonight’s opening tip. He’s only participated in four opening tips. However, he failed to win the tip in any of those four games.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Jaxson Hayes of the Lakers. Hayes has won the tip 62% of the time in 13 tries. He’s also helped the Lakers score first 61% of the time this season.
There’s a good chance Hayes will win the tip over Reid and give the Lakers the first shot attempt in tonight’s game.
That said, Minnesota has allowed the first basket to power forwards 30% of the time. They’ve also given up the first basket to centers 30% of the time and small forwards 26% of the time.
Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are out of the picture since they’re guards. However, Jaxson Hayes has added the first basket in five out of 15 starts. He’s scored the first basket in 36% of games this season and has attempted the team’s first basket in 29% of games. That’s who I’m rolling with.
Pick: Jaxson Hayes (+550)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: