NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Thursday (3/13)
Although there are only five games on tonight’s NBA slate, I still found two spots to attack for our NBA first-basket wagers.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
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Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
The Sacramento Kings are expecting Domantas Sabonis to return from his hamstring injury. If he’s available, he’ll attempt the opening tip against Quinten Post of the Golden State Warriors.
Sabonis has only won the tip in 33% of his 55 opening tips. Therefore, the Kings have only scored first 45% of the time this season. On the other hand, the Warriors have only scored the first basket in 43% of games this season.
Still, Post has won the tip in six of his first 10 opening tips this season. Post certainly has the advantage over Sabonis, who is already coming off a lower-body injury.
It’s more likely the Warriors will win the tip and at least take the first basket.
Ultimately, the Kings have allowed shooting guards to score the first basket in 26% of games and point guards to score the first basket in 20% of games. Steph Curry has added the first basket in six games this season. He’s also scored the team’s first basket in 23% of games. He fits the script for tonight’s first basket scorer.
Pick: Steph Curry (+420)
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans
It’ll likely be a battle between Yves Missi of the Pelicans and Wendell Carter Jr. of the Orlando Magic.
Missi has been involved in 57 opening tips but has only won the tip in 30% of games this season. As a result, the Pelicans have scored first just 47% of the time.
On the other hand, the Magic have scored first slightly more (48%). Meanwhile, Carter has won the opening tip in 52% of his 25 attempts this year. He’s winning the opening tip at a much higher rate and will likely get the best of Missi in tonight’s opening tip.
The Pelicans have allowed the first basket to centers 26% of the time and to small forwards 23% of the time. Franz Wagner and Carter would ultimately have the highest probabilities.
Wagner has scored the first basket in six games this season. He’s also scored the team’s first basket in 28% of starts and has added the team’s first field goal attempt in 28% of games. These are very high, encouraging averages.
Back Wagner to score the first basket.
Pick: Franz Wagner (+550)