NBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Monday (Thunder vs. Timberwolves)
The Oklahoma City Thunder easily won the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. However, in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves took control. With another win tonight, they have a chance to tie the series at two apiece.
It’ll be beneficial for both teams to start hot.
I looked through all the first basket data and decided on a wager for the first basket market below.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
In Game 3 of this series, Chet Holmgren won the tip over Rudy Gobert, and Isaiah Hartenstein scored the first basket. It was the first time in this series that the Thunder won the tip. There have been many instances where Hartenstein has participated in the opening tip. But right now, the Thunder have relied on Holmgren.
It worked for Game 3 and should continue to work out more consistently. After all, the Thunder won the tip in 59% of games this season while the Timberwolves won the tip in only 46% of games. Whether it’s Holmgren or Hartenstein attempting the opening tip, the Thunder still have an edge.
That said, Holmgren has performed better in the opening tip than Hartenstein, so the Thunder are much better off with Holmgren participating in the tip.
Minnesota allowed the first basket to power forwards 27% of the time during the regular season. Centers and point guards each scored the first basket 22% of the time. Those are the three positions to consider when backing the Thunder to score first.
Meanwhile, Holmgren, Oklahoma City’s power forward, has scored the team’s first basket in 27% of starts this season. He’s also attempted the team’s first field goal attempt in 32% of games and has a team-best 13 first baskets. For comparison, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned only nine first baskets and attempted the team’s first field goal in only 8% of games.
Holmgren is the best bet at +600 odds.
Pick: Chet Holmgren (+600)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: