NBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Saturday (4/4)
The NBA surely isn’t looking to compete with the NCAA’s Final Four tonight. There are three games on the NBA slate, with only one game at 7:00 pm ET or later. The other two are at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Either way, there’s value on the board in the first basket market!
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Saturday’s Best NBA First Basket Scorers Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today's NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today's best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
The Spurs win the tip nine out of ten times when Victor Wembanyama is the tip-man. However, they’ve still only scored first 55% of the time. That’s a solid rate, but you’d expect a higher one.
On the other hand, it’ll be Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets. He’s won the tip in 57% of games and has helped the Nuggets also score first 55% of the time. Still, it’s more likely that the Spurs will win the opening tip and take the first shot.
Denver has allowed the first basket to centers 37% of the time this season. The Nuggets have also allowed the first field goal to shooting gaurds 26% of the time.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in first baskets with 11, and he’s scored the team’s first basket in 42% of games this season. He’s even taken the first field goal attempt in 35% of starts this season.
Even at +420, Wembanyama is the play.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama (+420)
Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers will use Adem Bona for tonight’s opening tip. He’s won 40% of opening tips this season and has helped the 76ers score first 48% of the time.
Meanwhile, Jalen Duren will participate in the opening tip for the Pistons. He’s won the tip only 44% of the time, but the Pistons have scored first 55% of the time. It’s more likely the Pistons end up with the first possession of the game.
Ultimately, the 76ers have allowed the first field goal to point guards 28% of the time. They’ve also given up the first basket to centers 23% of the time. We’ll want to target those positions.
Jalen Duren leads the Pistons in first baskets with ten. He’s scored the team’s first basket in 30% of games and has attempted the team’s first field goal attempt in 21% of games. Let’s give Duren a chance at +600 odds.
Pick: Jalen Duren (+600)