NBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Wednesday (3/25)
Yesterday, we nailed a +500 NBA first basket scorer pick, thanks to Maxime Raynaud of the Kings. Let’s see if we can add another first basket winner with tonight’s two picks.
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Wednesday's Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today's NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today's best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers
It’ll be Deandre Ayton of the Lakers against Jay Huff of the Pacers in the opening tip. Ayton has won the opening tip in 65% of games this season. Huff has only won the tip in 56% of games this year. That’s a solid rate, but not close to Ayton. Plus, the Lakers have scored first 57% of the time, while the Pacers have scored first only 42% of the time.
Ultimately, the Pacers have allowed the first basket to come from power forwards 36% of the time and from centers 24% of the time. That means they’ve allowed the first basket to power forwards and centers 60% of the time.
LeBron James is the current power forward for the Lakers. He’s scored the first basket in nine games this season. That’s just one shy of Luka Doncic, but he’s started in nine fewer games than Doncic this season. James has scored the team’s first basket in 25% of games this season and has a higher first-basket rate than Doncic. Let’s back James at +750 to score first.
Pick: LeBron James (+750)
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Alperen Sengun already has an opening tip win over Rudy Gobert. But it’s unlikely he’ll be able to sustain multiple wins against Gobert. After all, Sengun has only won the tip in 41% of games this season. Gobert has won the opening tip in 52% of games. Plus, the Timberwolves have scored first in 61% of games, while the Rockets have added the first basket in just 48% of games.
It’s more likely Gobert will win the tip and help the Timberwolves attempt the first basket. That said, Houston has allowed the first basket to small forwards 30% of the time. Point guards have scored the first basket 22% of the time. We’ll want to target those two positions in this game.
Jaden McDaniels is the small forward for the Timberwolves. He’s scored the first basket five times in 70 games. It’s not the best rate. However, he’s still attempted the first field goal in 16% of his starts with the Timberwolves. He’s got some value tonight, especially at +850 odds.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels (+850)