NBA Futures: Best Bet to Win the NBA Title (2020)
Recommending an NBA Championship futures bet requires analysis of three major factors:
- How was a team playing before the shutdown?
- Has the pandemic dramatically altered anyone’s roster?
- Which team benefits most from a long layoff?
After taking a look at our Eastern and Western Conference previews, you will notice we can realistically limit the NBA title chase to three teams: the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers.
In this article, we will analyze all three teams under the lens of the three factors noted above before deciding on our best bet. You can also find our consensus odds for the NBA Championship here.
Odds to Win the 2020 NBA Championship (odds according to BetMGM)
Get a Risk-Free first bet up to $500 at BetMGM >>
Team’s Performance Pre-Shutdown
Before the shutdown, these three teams’ records were as follows: Bucks (53-12, 1st in East), Lakers (49-14, 1st in West), Clippers (44-20, 2nd in West). However, with the West viewed as more deep than the East, are these records created equal? The Bucks are 3-1 head-to-head against the others, although one of those wins against the Clippers came by just five points in a game where neither Kawhi Leonard or Paul George played.
It is hard to accurately gauge the Clippers’ performance to date since Leonard and George have played just half of the team’s games together. They are 24-8 with them both on the floor, thus the .750 winning percentage has them still just below the Lakers at .778.
Lebron James continues to put up mind-boggling numbers at the age of 35. He has averaged 25.7 points, 10.6 assists, and 7.9 rebounds per game while playing 60 of the team’s 63 games thus far. There is clearly a cohesion with the rest of these “new-look†Lakers and he and Giannis Antetokounmpo should receive all of the MVP votes.
The Bucks to this point have looked like the most cohesive team, which is not surprising considering their nucleus has been together the longest. They lost three straight games and four of their last five before the shutdown. However, they can be given a pass since Antetokounmpo was battling a knee injury. Outside of this poor stretch, they looked like the most dominant team in the NBA.
EDGE: Milwaukee Bucks
What Does Each Roster Currently Look Like?
Of these three teams, the Lakers roster has easily been the most affected since the shutdown. Guard Avery Bradley opted out of the restart, citing concerns over his family’s health. In addition, fellow guard Rajon Rondo fractured his thumb in practice and is out at least until the start of the playoffs. The Lakers had already signed guard Dion Waiters to help with roster depth and have since added J.R. Smith who has familiarity with Lebron James from their days in Cleveland.
Neither the Bucks nor Clippers rosters look all that different heading into the restart. The Clippers received a bit of good news when three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams declared he would stay with the team after previously being 50/50 about opting out. Thus, the edge in this category comes down to whose roster you like better.
For my money, I will take the Clippers roster over the Bucks. Granted, the Bucks are clearly a more cohesive unit while the Clippers stars are still getting used to playing with each other. However, I have faith the NBA champion head coach Doc Rivers can blend their talent together quickly. In addition, Kawhi Leonard showed he has no problem quickly becoming an NBA champion with a new franchise as he did it with Toronto in one short year. Khris Middleton is still underrated by many, but he is not the No. 2 player like Paul George or Anthony Davis are to their respective teams.
EDGE: Los Angeles Clippers
Which Team Benefits Most from the Long Layoff?
While there will be some debating this answer, everyone should be in unison that the answer is clearly not the Bucks. Outside of Milwaukee being able to get Giannis some rest for his knee, the timing of the shutdown was not great. They were already a team that did not have any player averaging more 31 minutes a game. Thus, the Bucks were in a great position before the shutdown as their roster had an advantage already being more rested than their counterparts.
Teams like the Lakers and Clippers clearly benefited from the layoff more than the Bucks. Both teams have older veterans who were either nursing injuries or were in need of more rest. Given that Lebron James and Anthony Davis missed a combined 11 games before the shutdown, I will give the nod to the team that benefits most to the Clippers.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have missed a combined 35 games. It will be interesting to see how coach Doc Rivers handles the eight seeding games once the season resumes. The Clippers need to get their two stars more in rhythm with each other, and need to stay in the top three in the standings to avoid the Lakers before the Western Conference finals. However, Leonard has always been managed carefully, and doing so after the restart seems like a possibility.
EDGE: Los Angeles Clippers
Conclusion
There are more reasons to like the value in the Clippers besides the ones already mentioned. Perhaps no team benefits more from games being played at a neutral site down the stretch. If the Clippers and Lakers were to have squared off in the Western Conference finals, all the games at the Staples Center would have felt like road games since Los Angeles is clearly a pro-Lakers town.
In addition, the versatility on the Clippers roster is something the other two contenders do not possess. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are two of the best on-ball defenders in the league. Thus, they can take turns matching up against players like Lebron James, Khris Middleton or even Giannis Antetonkounmpo. However, these two do not have to guard these stars for an entire game since Patrick Beverly is equally adept at being a defensive nuisance.
The Bucks have shorter odds because they have an easier path to the finals. The Lakers have the shortest odds because they have been the better team. However, the Clippers are fully healthy and rested for what feels like the first time all season and are on the cusp of something big. If they can get past the Lakers, they would likely be favored over the Bucks in a seven-game series.
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers to win the NBA Championship (+325)
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.