NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/11)
It’s a small slate of four games tonight in the NBA. Still, there’s an exciting matchup between the Bucks and Pacers on TNT. I’ll break down that matchup along with one other game for my two best bets of the night.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 115.6 points per 100 possessions, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.8% and have kept turnovers down to 13.4%. However, they’ve added the fewest offensive rebounds per game this season, which has been holding them back.
That said, the Pacers have allowed 29.2% of offensive rebounds per game on defense. Therefore, it’s likely the Bucks will have a better showing on the offensive glass tonight. In addition, the Pacers have allowed a 55% effective field goal percentage and aren’t very good at defending in that regard. The Bucks should be able to take advantage with some quality looks throughout the game.
Meanwhile, the Pacers also have a high effective field goal percentage of 56.6%. It’s unlikely they’ll get nearly as many good shots with the Bucks holding teams to a 53.3% effective field goal percentage.
That said, Indiana has limited turnovers to 13.2% and should be able to at least get shots up. It’s just even more unlikely the Pacers will add offensive rebounds, with the Bucks holding teams to 26.1% of offensive rebounds. Milwaukee has also kept teams away from the foul line at a top-seven rate in the NBA this season.
While Indiana won’t turn the ball over often, the Bucks should still be able to keep the Pacers from scoring at a super-high rate in tonight’s game. I’ll grab the Bucks at -3.5 on the road.
Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans have been hot and cold this season. The Pelicans started the season super slow, thanks to many injuries to their starting players. While the Pelicans will never be fully healthy this season, they got back Zion Williamson and started to cruise. However, the Pelicans have lost four straight games and have allowed at least 136 points in two of those four games.
Ultimately, the Pelicans have allowed the highest defensive points per 100 possessions rate in the NBA this season. They’ve also given up a 56.8% effective field goal percentage and 31.5% of offensive rebounds.
The Pelicans are only good for keeping teams off the foul line. Ultimately, the Clippers should be able to get quality looks and rebound off their misses. New Orleans won’t have Kelly Olynyk or Brandon Boston Jr. and is already without Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray. It’s just been one of those seasons.
On the other hand, the Pelicans haven’t been any more consistent in scoring the basketball. New Orleans ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions and has shot an underwhelming effective field goal percentage of 51.6%.
This is where the Clippers excel. Los Angeles has limited teams to 110.7 points per 100 possessions and a 53.9% effective field goal percentage. They also rank in the top six in turnover percentage and rebounding percentage on defense. Plus, the Clippers have won three straight games against playoff-level teams. Give me the Clippers to stomp all over the Pelicans tonight.
Pick: Clippers -6.5 (-105)