NBA Picks: Market Based EV Predictions (Monday)
With three games on the NBA slate, I’m looking for some valuable NBA picks we can root for while watching. Therefore, I checked out BettingPros’ Market-Based EV page and grabbed some positive expected value bets using the fair value to identify these.
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Monday’s Best Market Based EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated)
Jarrett Allen Over 1.5 Assists (+176 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +152
- Market EV: +9%
Jarrett Allen didn’t record a single assist in Game 1 against the Raptors. However, he’s averaged two assists per game in his last nine meetings against the Raptors. He’s had at least two potential assists in seven of his last nine games against Toronto.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, we can get Jarrett Allen at +176 to record two assists. Meanwhile, the general market and fair value believe the line should be +152. That’s a +9% expected value bet. Let’s ride it out.
Jonathan Kuminga Under 5.5 Rebounds (-120 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -134
- Market EV: +5%
Jonathan Kuminga has grabbed at least six rebounds in just two of his last 10 games. Ultimately, he’s had 6.1 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games and will face a Knicks team ranked fourth in the NBA in rebounds allowed to power forwards this season.
At this time, Hard Rock Bet has this bet at -120, while the market and fair value price are at -134. That’s a +5% positive expected value play. Let’s fade Kuminga with the second play of the night using the Market Based EV tool.
Naz Reid Under 1.5 Assists (+110 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +100
- Market EV: +5%
Naz Reid added two assists in Game 1 of the postseason against the Denver Nuggets. He’s averaged nearly three potential assists per game over the last 10 games. He’s also hit this line in 11 of his last 18 games against the Nuggets, including in Game 1.
Reid isn’t getting a ton of time on the court. But he’ll still make his presence felt when on the floor. BetMGM is offering +110 odds for him to go under his assists prop, while the current fair value for this play is +100. That’s a +5% execpected value play.