NBA Picks: Market Based EV Predictions (Saturday)
We’re looking to get off to a hot start with this year’s NBA playoffs. If you’re looking to do the same, you’ll want to check out BettingPros’ Market Based EV page, which has many valuable bets to consider. I listed my three favorite NBA picks below.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more sports bets to your betting portfolio.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best Market Based EV NBA Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Max Strus Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-150 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: -159
- Market EV: 2%
Max Strus has drilled at least two threes in five of his last seven games. Meanwhile, he’s averaged 3.2 threes per game over his last five games against the Toronto Raptors.
Strus has attempted an average of 7.4 threes per game against the Raptors during that stretch. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged 6.9 three-point attempts per game, while hitting nearly 31% from deep.
Tonight, Strus figures to play at least 20 minutes. His usage rate has been about 17% against the Raptors, which is on par with his usage rate over his last 10 games. Back on February 12th, Strus took 10 three-point attempts and shot 40% from three-point range. He’s shot 40% or better from three in four of his last five games against the Raptors.
Let’s back the over.
Jaden McDaniels Under 2.5 Assists (-105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -112
- Market EV: 3%
Jaden McDaniels hasn’t earned at least three assists in three consecutive games. He’s had no more than five potential assists in four straight games entering this one.
Meanwhile, in his last 19 games against the Nuggets, he’s averaged just 1.8 assists per game. He’s averaged just two assists per game over the last five games.
The fair value for this bet is -112, but we’re getting -105 odds at BetMGM. That’s some really good value. If we continue to find bets like these daily, we’ll see the bankroll increase over time.
Deandre Ayton Under 0.5 Assists (+175 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +159
- Market EV: +6%
DeAndre Ayton hasn’t added more than one assist in any of his last 10 games. In addition, he’s secured one assist in every other game over the last seven games. If that trend continues, Ayton won’t add an assist tonight after adding an assist against Utah in his last game.
That’s a really nice-looking trend, especially knowing we can get +175 odds for Ayton to not earn a single assist. In the last 10 games, he’s had no more than two potential assists and hasn’t earned an assist in five of his last 10 games.
When you do the math, +175 is good value. Plus, the fair value is set at +159, giving us a +6% positive expected value. Let’s ride with Ayton’s under.