NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Cavaliers vs. Knicks (Tuesday)
The Market Based EV page is showing some really good value NBA picks on the board for the Cavaliers-Knicks Game 1 matchup in Madison Square Garden.
I went in-depth on three of those bets, but feel free to follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more bets for Tuesday, May 19th.
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Tuesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Max Strus Over 4.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -103
- Market EV: +4%
Max Strus has grabbed at least five rebounds in six of his last 10 games. He’s seen at least 11 rebound chances per game over his last three games. Strus has also played an average of 28 minutes a night over the last 10 games and has earned almost nine rebound chances per game in that stretch.
Strus’ current line is +105, but the fair value is -103 for his over on rebounds. This is a 4% positive expected-value play you’ll want to consider for tonight’s game. Lock it in.
Dennis Schroder Over 0.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +3%
Dennis Schroder hasn’t drained a three-pointer in three straight games. He’s missed this line in six of his last 10 games. However, Schroder typically does well against the Knicks.
Schroder has averaged 1.3 three-pointers per game over his last 15 outings against the Knicks. He’s nailed this line in 11 out of 15 games against New York and has attempted four three-pointers per game during that span.
That’s double what Schroder attempted over the last 10 games. Look for him to be more aggressive from downtown. This is a 3% positive expected-value play, with a fair value of +108.
Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+180 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +175
- Market EV: +2%
Evan Mobley has drained at least two threes in two of his last three games. In those two games, he’s attempted nine threes combined. Mobley has also attempted at least three three-pointers in four straight games.
Mobley shot at least 40% in two of his last four games from downtown. He’s facing a Knicks team that ranked 25th in three-point attempts allowed to power forwards this season. Mobley should get some shots up. At +180 odds, you’re getting value since the fair value is +175.
Give Mobley a chance.