NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Friday (5/1)
The first round of the NBA playoffs will soon wrap up. Many teams are on the brink of reaching the second round. That said, there are still plenty of intriguing matchups on the horizon tonight. Check out the BettingPros Market Based EV page for some of the best NBA picks. I listed three below.
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Friday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
Desmond Bane Over 4.5 Rebounds (+120)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +4%
Desmond Bane has grabbed at least five rebounds in five of his last six games. He’s hit this line in all but one game against the Pistons and has played at least 33 minutes in every game during this series. Additionally, Bane has recorded at least eight potential rebounds in every game.
You can find Bane to record at least five rebounds at BetMGM for +120. Meanwhile, the fair value for this bet is lower at +112, yielding a market EV of 4%.
Ja’Kobe Walter Under 3.5 Rebounds (-125)
- Fair Value: -139
- Market EV: +5%
Toronto’s backup shooting guard has grabbed at least four rebounds in just one game this series. Ja’Kobe Walter is seeing 25+ minutes, but not getting many potential rebounds. Instead, Walter added no more than six potential rebounds in every game but one during this first-round playoff series.
In his last 10 games against the Cavaliers, Walter has earned at least four rebounds just two times. He’s averaged fewer than three rebounds per game during that stretch. Bet on Walter to go under his rebounds prop tonight at -125 odds. It’s a 5% positive expected value play.
Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 Rebounds (-105)
- Fair Value: -109
- Market EV: +2%
Over the last two games, Alperen Sengun has earned just 15 rebounds combined. At the start of the series, the rebound chances were high. Over the last two games, he’s only had 31 rebound chances. That’s below his average over the last 10 games.
Plus, Sengun has averaged only 9.3 rebounds against the Lakers over the last 13 games. He’s also averaged only nine rebounds per game throughout the season and playoffs.
There’s a slight +EV play here at BetMGM. You can get -105 odds for Sengun to go under on his rebounds prop when the fair value is at -109. Any value is good value.