NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Friday (5/15)
There’s a possibility that we’ll know the final four teams in the NBA playoffs by the end of the night. That said, here are some Market-Based EV NBA picks to consider for tonight’s action.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more bets for Friday, May 15th.
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Friday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Jalen Duren Under 8.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -107
- Market EV: +3%
Jalen Duren has hauled in no more than five rebounds in three consecutive games. He’s had a high amount of rebound chances, but he’s simply not coming down with the ball. Duren had five rebounds in 25 minutes against the Cavaliers in Game 5, but had 19 rebound chances. He’s been far from efficient on the glass.
Meanwhile, you can add back his under on 8.5 rebounds at +100 odds on BetMGM, while the fair value is -107. That’s a 3% positive expected value bet. Pile these up and watch the profit trickle in.
Daniss Jenkins Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+165 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: +157
- Market EV: +3%
Daniss Jenkins has become a key piece for the Detroit Pistons. He played nearly 41 minutes in Game 5 and attempted eight three-pointers. He only shot 25% from deep, but his usage rate was nearly 20% in that game.
At PartyCasino, you can add him to get over 1.5 made three-pointers at +165 odds. The fair value is set at +157, giving this play a 3% positive expected value. Jenkins has attempted at least three three-pointers in all but one of his last nine games.
Luke Kornet Over 2.5 Points (+125 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +6%
Luke Kornet played just 11 minutes and scored zero points in Game 5 for the San Antonio Spurs. With Victor Wembanyama back, Kornet didn’t play much. He didn’t even take a shot in those 11 minutes. Still, Kornet has shot 61.9% from the field over the last 10 games and has attempted 2.3 shots per game during that stretch. A simple put-back and-one would be all it takes to hit the over.
At BetMGM, you can add Kornet to score at least three points at +125 odds, while the fair value is +112. That’s one of the best plays on the board right now.